Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$87.15
6-month call
Bull +5.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$91.80
Great value below
$72.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+5.3% to $91.80
Predicted High
$91.80
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$87.60
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 12:55 am
Bull
MDT trends higher to
$91.80
(+5.3% from $87.15)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisMDT is a low-beta defensive with modest positive sentiment and a supportive risk-on tape, trading slightly above composite fair value but below DCF. Expect a gentle drift higher toward the deterministic baseline, with value gravity capping upside since shares are not cheap on the value lens.
Invalidated ifA break below $82 on sustained volume or a regime flip to risk-off would falsify the gentle uptrend
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $87.15 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $87.15 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $81.77–$92.53 typical range · internal point $87.60 | — | ±6.2% | 7/10 | Calm tape and product news provide gentle near-term lift |
| What actually happened: closed $93.35 on Aug 21, 2026 = +7.1% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 6.6 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $79.35–$94.95 typical range · internal point $88.30 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime continues supporting low-beta defensive drift |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $89.20 | — | +2.4% | 5/10 | Slow grind toward composite fair value neighborhood |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $88.50 | — | +1.5% | 4/10 | Value lens caution and mild pullback near fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $90.00 | — | +3.3% | 4/10 | Recovery as DCF anchor pulls price higher |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $91.20 | — | +4.6% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward deterministic baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $91.80 | — | +5.3% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic endpoint as value gravity caps upside |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $91.85 (+5.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $87.15 |
| Composite fair value | $85.44 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $83.33 |
| DCF fair value | $94.54 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $107.10 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $72.00 |
| Value net score | -38 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +55 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.1% 3m 31.0% 6m 26.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.37 3m -0.16 5m 0.24 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -15.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | MDT-20260808-000712-04f2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-MDT-20260808-004135-533b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-MDT-20260808-004135-533b |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-MDT-20260808-004135-533b |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-MDT-20260808-004135-533b |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | MDT-20260808-000712-04f2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | MDT-20260808-000712-04f2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $87.15 | $91.80 | +5.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $83.06 | $93.92 | +13.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.