Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$92.70
6-month call
Bear -6.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$86.50
Great value below
$78.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.7% to $86.50
Predicted High
$93.80
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$86.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 1:03 am
Bear
SO trends lower to
$86.50
(-6.7% from $92.70)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSO trades meaningfully above composite fair value ($71.86) and signal-adjusted fair value ($82.21), but a risk-on tape and durable data-center demand narrative should keep the premium intact near-term. Over the 6-month window, gentle value gravity pulls the price lower toward the mid-80s, though the low beta and defensive utility bid limit downside.
Invalidated ifA break above $98 on data-center capex upgrades, or a break below $84 on rate spike or regulatory setback, would falsify.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $92.70 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $92.70 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $89.33–$96.07 typical range · internal point $93.20 | — | ±3.6% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and low beta support drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $88.97 on Aug 21, 2026 = -4.0% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±3.6%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $87.82–$97.58 typical range · internal point $93.80 | — | ±5.3% | 6/10 | Data-center narrative sustains modest premium |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $92.50 | — | -0.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins as momentum cools |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $90.80 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Overvaluation flags weigh; sentiment moderates |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $89.20 | — | -3.8% | 5/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims rich defensives |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $88.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $86.50 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull dominates over six-month horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $89.28 (-3.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $92.70 |
| Composite fair value | $71.86 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $82.21 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $78.48 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $78.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +16 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 15.6% 3m 18.2% 6m 19.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.39 3m -0.39 5m -0.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 1.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SO-20260808-002313-78e8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SO-20260808-005244-bbe0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SO-20260808-005244-bbe0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SO-20260808-005244-bbe0 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-SO-20260808-005244-bbe0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | SO-20260808-002313-78e8 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $92.70 | $86.50 | -6.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.