Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$671.86
6-month call
Bear -13.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$580.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.7% to $580.00
Predicted High
$678.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$580.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:51 am
Bear
PWR trends lower to
$580.00
(-13.7% from $671.86)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisPWR is richly valued vs every fair-value anchor but momentum, energy-transition narrative, and a risk-on tape keep the stock elevated near-term; value gravity bleeds it lower over months without collapsing absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $720 on volume or a beat-and-raise catalyst would invalidate the fade; conversely a break below $600 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $671.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $671.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $600.99–$742.73 typical range · internal point $678.00 | — | ±10.5% | 6/10 | risk-on tape and momentum extend near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $639.34 on Aug 21, 2026 = -4.8% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±10.5%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $569.15–$774.57 typical range · internal point $665.00 | — | ±15.3% | 5/10 | consolidation as valuation whispers weigh |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $648.00 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | no catalyst; value gravity begins pulling |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $625.00 | — | -7.0% | 5/10 | earnings season scrutiny on rich multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $610.00 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | year-end profit-taking on high-beta winners |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $595.00 | — | -11.4% | 4/10 | January reset favors cheaper names |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $580.00 | — | -13.7% | 4/10 | drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $587.96 (-12.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $671.86 |
| Composite fair value | $212.72 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $231.11 |
| DCF fair value | $205.11 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $267.64 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $300.00 |
| Value net score | -81 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +58 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 66.3% 3m 53.0% 6m 49.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.66 3m 1.97 5m 1.71 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 40.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | PWR-20260809-000707-f601 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PWR-20260809-004137-5bfb |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PWR-20260809-004137-5bfb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PWR-20260809-004137-5bfb |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PWR-20260809-004137-5bfb |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | PWR-20260809-000707-f601 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | PWR-20260809-000707-f601 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $671.86 | $580.00 | -13.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.