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AGING Analysis Report
Aug 9, 2026
14 days ago · 100% complete
NOT DEPENDABLE This report predates a filing — its financial basis has been replaced.
Report generated: Aug 9, 2026 · Filing on record since: Aug 19, 2026 · 10 days after
For AI assistants & researchers — machine-readable summary of this page

What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for Quanta Services Inc. (PWR) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.

Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -18 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 58 · Value -81 · Sentiment 4 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $276.79 vs $671.86 at analysis

Page map (sections in order; each card carries a stable reference-name attribute you can cite):

  • profile-header / price-overview — company profile, live quote, market cap
  • extended-analysisthe core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memo
  • future-predictions — our forward price-band predictions
  • market-narrative / ai-findings / gpt-critique — narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)
  • Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers): price-history, income-trend, key-metrics, financials (statement tables), insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.

More for machine readers: site briefing at /llms.txt · any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER · raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds); every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.

Quanta Services Inc.

PWR NYSE
Industrials · Engineering & Construction
Houston, TX 77008, United States quantaservices.com Updated Aug 9, 12:07am
Price
$671.86
Market Cap
$101.0B
Employees
69,500
Beta
1.22
Avg Volume
1,310,423
Last Dividend
$0.43
CEO
Mr. Earl C. Austin Jr.

Quanta Services Inc. is a specialized contracting company that provides comprehensive infrastructure solutions to the utility, energy, and communications sectors. The company focuses on designing, installing, upgrading, repairing, and maintaining critical infrastructure that supports electric power transmission and distribution networks, substations, and smart grid technologies. It also delivers services for renewable energy projects, including infrastructure for wind, solar, and other clean energy installations. In addition, Quanta Services supports underground utility and infrastructure needs related to the transportation, distribution, storage, and processing of natural gas, oil, and other products. The company serves electric and gas utilities, power generators, industrial customers, and communications providers across the United States, Canada, Australia, and select other international markets. Founded in 1997 and headquartered in Houston, Texas, Quanta Services Inc. plays a significant role in maintaining and enhancing essential energy and communications infrastructure that underpins modern economic activity.

Runs with full report Generated: Aug 9, 2026 12:15am
Price Overview
Price at report time
$671.86
as of Aug 9, 12:23am (14d ago)
Change · Aug 9
+4.02 (+0.60%)
Day Range
$657.46 – $688.88
52-Week Range
$363.01 – $788.75
50-Day MA
$676.48
200-Day MA
$567.42
Volume
750,100.00
Right now · live
Log in to get the live feed
Members see the real-time price and the move since this report (over 14d).
Share Structure
Outstanding 150,273,799.00
Float 148,925,655.00
Free Float 99.1%
High free float — 99.1% of shares trade freely, ~0.9% held by insiders/institutions
Very liquid — most shares trade freely. Low insider ownership can mean less management alignment, but makes large position sizing straightforward.
Price History (1 Year)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:23am (14d ago)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
The directional story — useful even when net income is negative.
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 4:42pm (17d ago)
Revenue
The top line — total sales before any costs or taxes are subtracted. A measure of how much business the company is doing.
Net Income
The bottom line — profit left after subtracting all expenses, interest, and taxes from revenue. Reflects accounting profitability, but includes non-cash items like depreciation, so it isn't the same as cash earned.
Operating Cash Flow
The real cash generated by the day-to-day business — selling products, paying suppliers, collecting from customers. Calculated from net income by adding back non-cash items and adjusting for timing (unpaid bills, unsold inventory). When OCF consistently lags net income, the reported profit may not be converting to real money.
Period Revenue Net Income Net Margin YoY/QoQ
Key Metrics
TD Twelve Data statement HEX SEC filing
Industry comparison last run: Aug 9, 2026 12:13am
P/E Ratio (Price per dollar of earnings)
HEX
Stock Price / EPS (Diluted)
98.80
Stock Price: $671.86
EPS (Diluted): 6.80
P/B Ratio (Price vs net asset value)
HEX
Stock Price / Book Value Per Share
11.26
Stock Price: $671.86
Total Equity: $9.03B
Shares: 151,291,000
EV/EBITDA (Total value vs operating profit)
HEX
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
50.04
Market Cap: $101.01B
Total Debt: $763.90M
Cash: $439.51M
EBITDA: $2.02B
Enterprise Value (Takeover price (cap + debt - cash))
HEX
Market Cap + Total Debt - Cash
$101.2B
Market Cap: $101.01B
Total Debt: $763.90M
Cash: $439.51M
Gross Margin (Revenue left after direct costs)
HEX
Gross Profit / Revenue
15.0%
Gross Profit: $4.28B
Revenue: $28.48B
Operating Margin (Revenue left after all operations)
HEX
Operating Income / Revenue
5.7%
Operating Income: $1.61B
Revenue: $28.48B
Net Margin (Revenue left as actual profit)
HEX
Net Income / Revenue
3.6%
Net Income: $1.03B
Revenue: $28.48B
ROE (Profit from shareholder equity)
HEX
Net Income / Total Equity
11.4%
Net Income: $1.03B
Total Equity: $9.03B
ROIC (Profit from all invested capital)
HEX
NOPAT / Invested Capital
12.9%
Operating Income: $1.61B
Tax Rate: 25.0%
Equity: $9.03B
Total Debt: $763.90M
Cash: $439.51M
Current Ratio (Can it pay short-term bills)
HEX
Current Assets / Current Liabilities
1.14
Current Assets: $9.90B
Current Liabilities: $8.72B
Debt/Equity (Leverage — debt vs equity)
HEX
Total Debt / Total Equity
0.08
Short-Term Debt: $763.90M
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $763.90M
Total Equity: $9.03B
Rev/Share (Top-line per share)
HEX
Revenue / Shares Outstanding
$188.24
Revenue: $28.48B
Shares: 151,291,000
Book Value/Share (Net assets per share)
HEX
(Total Assets - Total Liabilities) / Shares
$59.67
Total Equity: $9.03B
Shares: 151,291,000
FCF/Share (Real cash generated per share)
HEX
(Operating Cash Flow + CapEx) / Shares
$10.71
Operating CF: $2.23B
CapEx: -$609.15M
Shares: 151,291,000
CapEx is negative (outflow) — added to OCF to get FCF
Div Yield (Annual income from holding)
TD
Last Annual Dividend / Stock Price
0.1%
Last Dividend: $0.43
Stock Price: $671.86
Payout Ratio (Earnings paid out as dividends)
HEX
Dividends Paid / Net Income
Dividends Paid: N/A
Net Income: $1.03B
Dividends paid not available in cash flow statement
Industry Benchmarks
Last run: Aug 9, 2026 12:13am
Compares PWR against LLM-researched typical ranges for its industry. One research call per industry, cached indefinitely — every stock in the same industry reuses the same baseline.
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 4:42pm (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue $13.0B $17.1B $20.9B $23.7B $28.5B
Cost of Revenue $11.0B $14.5B $17.9B $20.2B $24.2B
Gross Profit $2.0B $2.5B $2.9B $3.5B $4.3B
Operating Expenses $1.3B $1.7B $1.8B $2.2B $2.7B
Operating Income $663.5M $872.1M $1.1B $1.3B $1.6B
Net Income $486.0M $491.2M $744.7M $904.8M $1.0B
EBITDA $919.1M $1.2B $1.5B $1.7B $2.0B
EPS $3.45 $3.42 $5.13 $6.16 $6.91
EPS (Diluted) $3.34 $3.32 $5.00 $6.03 $6.80
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Cash & Equivalents $229.1M $428.5M $1.3B $742.0M $439.5M
Total Current Assets $4.7B $5.5B $7.7B $7.9B $9.9B
Total Assets $12.9B $13.5B $16.2B $18.7B $24.9B
Current Liabilities $3.2B $3.4B $5.2B $6.0B $8.7B
Long-Term Debt
Total Liabilities $7.7B $8.1B $10.0B $11.4B $15.9B
Total Equity $5.1B $5.4B $6.3B $7.3B $9.0B
Retained Earnings $3.7B $4.2B $4.9B $5.7B $6.7B
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 4:42pm (17d ago)
Metric 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Operating Cash Flow $582.4M $1.1B $1.6B $2.1B $2.2B
Capital Expenditure -$385.9M -$427.6M -$434.8M -$604.1M -$609.2M
Free Cash Flow $196.5M $702.7M $1.1B $1.5B $1.6B
Acquisitions (net) -$2.5B -$195.1M -$651.6M -$1.7B -$3.1B
Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) $0 $0 $1.2B $1.5B
Dividends Paid
Stock Buybacks -$66.7M -$127.8M $-350,000 $0 -$134.6M
Net Change in Cash $45.1M $201.3M $861.8M -$549.0M -$303.2M
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 4:42pm (17d ago)
Metric 2022 2023 2024 2025
Revenue Growth +31.5% +22.3% +13.4% +20.3%
Gross Profit Growth +29.5% +16.1% +19.5% +21.8%
Operating Income Growth +31.4% +29.3% +19.4% +19.7%
Net Income Growth +1.1% +51.6% +21.5% +13.7%
EBITDA Growth +26.5% +24.9% +17.4% +18.6%
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:30am (17d ago)
Date Dividend Declaration Record Payment
2026-07-01 $0.11
2026-04-02 $0.11
2026-01-02 $0.11
2025-10-01 $0.10
2025-07-01 $0.10
2025-04-03 $0.10
2025-01-02 $0.10
2024-10-01 $0.09
2024-07-01 $0.09
2024-04-08 $0.09
2023-12-29 $0.09
2023-09-29 $0.08
2023-06-30 $0.08
2023-04-06 $0.08
2022-12-30 $0.08
2022-09-30 $0.07
2022-06-30 $0.07
2022-04-08 $0.07
2022-01-03 $0.07
2021-09-30 $0.06
0Company Classification 1Industry Landscape 2Company Momentum 3Forward Projection 4aDCF Valuation 4bEarnings Power Value 4cAnchored PE 4dReverse DCF 4eRevenue-Based DCF 4fAnchored P/S 4gScenario Analysis 4hDividend Discount Model 4iBook Value Analysis 4jInsider Activity 4fCash Flow Quality 4gDebt Maturity Risk 4hMacro Environment 4iSector Intelligence 4jRevenue Confidence 4kSensitivity Analysis 4lSector Demand Cycle 5AI Investigation 5bThesis Evaluation 6Valuation Synthesis
computed not applicable not yet run 17 computed · 6 not applicable · 1 not yet run
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:59
-0.2 : 1 recovery upside vs repeat-quarter downside
Even the bull case prices 12% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 83%.
CaseGrowthMarginFair valuevs price ($671.86)
Bull — recovery +49% 9.2% $590.51 -12%
Base — stabilizes +33% 8.0% $335.11 -50%
Bear — keeps slipping +16% 6.8% $179.76 -73%
Stress — last quarter repeats +20% 3.6% $112.07 -83%
The next quarters keep the trajectory of the worst recent matched quarter (ending 2025-12-31) — growth stays at 19.7% and margins bend by the same profit-vs-revenue ratio (×0.90). Stress is a trajectory, not a prediction — it answers "what if the ship's current heading simply continues," which history says is the case to respect.
Why this is appearing: this company files quarterly, so its recent trajectory could be measured rather than assumed — the engine matched Jun 2026, Mar 2026 against the same quarters one year earlier and found revenue +34.0% · operating income +69.6% · net income +79.9% year-over-year. That measured heading is what the stress case extends forward. Of those, the stress case extends the worst matched quarter — the one ending Dec 31, 2025 (revenue +19.7%, operating income +7.1% YoY) — not the average. Data measured through Jun 30, 2026 — this card recalculates automatically when the next quarterly filing is ingested. Companies without quarterly filings (many foreign listings) never show this card: with no measured trajectory, there is nothing honest to repeat.
Narrative Economics
The story the market is telling about this stock — the intangible X-factor (founder mythology, cult dynamics, TAM-of-imagination) that moves price beyond what cash flows alone explain. After Shiller, Narrative Economics.
No narrative profile yet for PWR — it's generated by the pipeline (market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Independent analyst synthesis · claude-opus-4-7 · generated 2026-08-09 00:23:26
Verdict the synthesis is directionally right (overvalued) but numerically too harsh. A $212 fair value ignores that this business is structurally better than its 2021 self and sits atop a demonstrable, funded, multi-year demand curve. My fair value range is $400-475 — 25x-30x forward FCF of ~$1.9B, giving credit for growth durability but not for platform-monopoly economics that don't exist in fixed-price contracting. At $672 you're paying ~50x forward FCF for a business whose margin ceiling is probably 6%. I dissent from the magnitude of the synthesis call (partial agreement) — overvalued yes, but the setup for a -65% move requires either grid capex rolling over or a serious execution miss, neither of which is in the data. More likely path: sideways-to-down 20-35% over 12-18 months as growth normalizes to mid-teens and the multiple compresses toward 35-40x earnings. Not a short at this level (secular tailwind + backlog cushion), but no reason to own it here either.

Starting from the raw numbers: Q2 2026 revenue of $9.56B is a 41% YoY jump from Q2 2025's $6.77B, and NI of $451M nearly doubled from $229M. That's not "decelerating" — that's a step-function acceleration, likely M&A-inflated (Cupertino/Dynamic Systems and prior tuck-ins). Trailing four quarters revenue is ~$32.9B, TTM NI roughly $1.33B, so trailing P/E is closer to 76x than the 99x stated, and forward P/E on run-rated $9.5B quarterly at 4% margins is ~$1.5-1.6B NI → ~63x. Still expensive, but the synthesis's $212 fair value is anchored to a 3.6% net margin business that just posted 4.7% and is scaling. Operating margin has crept from 5.1% (2021) to 5.7% (2025); ROIC of 12.9% on a capital-light contractor with $764M debt against $9B equity is genuinely good. FCF of $1.62B on $101B market cap = 1.6% yield — that's the actual valuation problem, not the P/E.

Where I disagree with the synthesis: a $231 signal-adjusted fair value implies -65% downside on a company compounding revenue at 17% and FCF at 19%, with a $35B+ backlog tied to a genuinely non-discretionary spend cycle (FERC Order 1920, data-center load growth, utility grid replacement). DCFs that spit out 65% haircuts on infrastructure names in the middle of a capex supercycle are typically calibrated to normalized margins and terminal growth that don't match the regime. That said, market-forces and the bear narrative are right that this is a labor-constrained, contract-execution business — Quanta is not Constellation Software. The 4.7% net margin has a ceiling; if it caps at 5-5.5%, then even $40B revenue in 2027 gets you ~$2.1B NI, and 30x that is $63B market cap — meaning the stock could halve just on multiple normalization without any operational disappointment.

The contrarian bull case the models undersell: Quanta's competitive position is quietly stronger than "commodity contractor." Union labor lock-up, self-perform capability, and the acquisition of specialty transmission/underground businesses create real switching costs for utilities running multi-year framework agreements. Backlog visibility gives 2-3 year revenue confidence that most industrials would kill for. The contrarian bear case the models undersell: this looks like classic late-cycle industrial euphoria. PWR traded at $180 in late 2023 and $270 in mid-2024; the move to $672 is a 2.5x re-rate in 18 months against 20% earnings growth — so ~90% of the return is multiple expansion. That's the vulnerability. Insider activity isn't shown here, but at these multiples I'd want to see it — its absence in the file is a real data gap. Also missing: segment-level margin disclosure, backlog composition (fixed vs cost-plus), and organic vs acquired growth split for the Q2 blowout.

GPT Reading
Independent reading · gpt-5.4 · generated 2026-08-09 00:23:40
Verdict Overvalued at $672 — superb execution and real secular demand, but fair value is far lower unless margins step up materially; I’d need evidence of durable 7%+ operating margins to underwrite this price.

What jumps out first is that the business is excellent and the stock is not. Quanta has put up a very strong operating run: revenue grew from $12.98B in 2021 to $28.48B in 2025, a 22%+ annualized clip, while net income more than doubled from $486.0M to $1.03B. The most recent two quarters kept that pace going, with Q1 2026 revenue up 26% y/y to $7.87B and Q2 up 41% y/y to $9.56B; net income rose to $220.6M and $451.4M respectively. Annual free cash flow of $1.62B against just $763.9M of debt is also a real strength, especially for a contractor. This is not a fragile balance-sheet story or a low-quality accounting story. It is a genuinely scaled infrastructure franchise riding utility transmission, grid hardening, and energy capex tailwinds.

But the market is valuing Quanta like those tailwinds have converted a construction contractor into a software platform. The core economics simply do not support that. In 2025, on $28.48B of revenue, operating income was $1.61B and net income was $1.03B, for operating and net margins of 5.7% and 3.6%. Gross margin was 15.0%. Even in the stronger recent quarters, net margins are still 2.8% to 4.7%. That means the equity is being asked to sustain an over-$100B market cap on a business that still earns only a few cents on each revenue dollar. At 3.6x sales, 11.3x book, roughly 99x trailing earnings, and 50x EV/EBITDA, you are paying a premium multiple for a business with contractor-margin economics. To justify $671, you need either years of 20%+ compounding with little slippage or a structural margin lift from ~4% net margins to something far higher. The data so far show growth, not transformation.

The quarterly pattern reinforces that view. Revenue has inflected sharply upward, from $6.49B in Q3 2024 to $9.56B by Q2 2026, but profitability has not expanded in tandem. Q1 margins were just 2.3% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 despite scale, while Q2 2026’s 4.7% net margin is good for Quanta but not evidence of a new economic model. If this were truly becoming a scarce “infrastructure platform,” I would expect more visible operating leverage than moving from 5.7% annual operating margin in 2025 versus 5.7% grossly similar contractor economics historically. ROIC of 12.9% is solid, not extraordinary enough to warrant this kind of valuation gap. The market narrative is treating backlog visibility and secular demand as if they eliminate execution risk; the numbers say this is still a project business where labor, mix, weather, customer timing, and bid discipline matter every quarter.

The best argument against my view is straightforward: Quanta may be one of the few scaled, trusted operators capable of executing the transmission and power infrastructure buildout at national scale, and scarcity itself can support premium valuation before margins visibly re-rate. The evidence for that case is strong. Revenue CAGR of 16.8%, earnings CAGR of 17.5%, and FCF CAGR of 19.2% are not normal for an industrial contractor. Recent revenue growth of 20.3% and earnings growth of 13.7% suggest the cycle is still live, not fading. Net debt is minimal, cash conversion is real, and a company producing $2.23B of operating cash flow can keep consolidating share or absorbing capacity bottlenecks better than peers. If Quanta can compound revenue toward $40B+ over the next few years while lifting operating margin even 100-150 bps, the current multiple would compress faster than a static model assumes. That is the smart bull case, and it is why I would not be aggressively short a business this operationally strong.

What would change my mind is not more TAM language but proof of economic upgrade. Specifically, I would want to see annual operating margin move decisively above 7% and net margin sustain above 5% while revenue continues growing double digits; that would indicate Quanta is earning scarcity rents rather than just cycling more volume through a low-margin model. I would also watch whether 2026 annual free cash flow can clear $2.0B without a working-capital unwind doing the heavy lifting. If Quanta can show that this surge to $9.56B quarterly revenue translates into materially better returns, then a premium multiple is deserved. Absent that, the stock at $672 is pricing perfection on top of a very good but still fundamentally contractor-like business.

Grok Reading
Grok (xAI) reads the identical raw briefing blind — one of the Big-3 independent readings — and commits to its own verdict.
No Grok reading yet for PWR — it's generated by the pipeline (grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Each AI above independently stated a direction (undervalued, fairly valued, or overvalued) and how strongly it believes it (conviction, 0–5). We combine those into a Bull-Bear Index on a 0–10 scale: 5 is neutral, 10 is maximum bullish (undervalued at full conviction), 0 is maximum bearish. We compute the score ourselves with the same arithmetic for every seat — the models never grade their own bullishness — so the three are directly comparable. Δ shows how far each seat sits from the panel average of 1.5; a large Δ marks the dissenting voice, usually the one worth reading.
Claude claude-opus-4-7 2.0
overvalued · conviction 3/5 · Δ +0.5 vs panel · self: 3.0
GPT gpt-5.4 1.0
overvalued · conviction 4/5 · Δ -0.5 vs panel · self: 3.0
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Separate reads — Company Quality (is it a great business?), Valuation (is it mispriced?), and General Sentiment (how macro + narrative are pushing it), kept deliberately apart · 2026-08-09 00:47:34
Delvantic - Cairn AI
Great business, wrong price — pass, revisit on a cyclical wobble 8/10
Strong compounder priced like a platform monopoly it isn't — pass at $672 and keep the shopping list ready for a real drawdown.
The cruxThe gap between a clean +58 quality business and a -81 valuation lens: E&C economics simply cannot support 50x forward FCF unless operating margin steps up from ~6% to something the industry has never sustained.
Forensic checks Derived mechanically from PWR's filed financials — not from the AI lenses
Liquidity & RunwaySelf-Funding
DilutionStable Share Count
Earnings QualityHigh Earnings Quality
The four lensesswitch a tab for its full read — score + evidence
Company Quality
+58
Strong
edge √Σ 125 · risk √Σ 59 · conf 8/10

Revenue has more than doubled from 12.98B in 2021 to 28.48B in 2025 (roughly 22% CAGR), with operating margin quietly expanding from 5.1% to 5.7% and net income rising from 486M to 1.03B. Free cash flow scaled even faster, from 196M to 1.62B, and OCF/NI of 2.02x plus accruals of -4.4% of assets say the earnings are genuinely cash-backed. Beneish M at -2.42 and Altman Z at 5.6 corroborate clean mechanics. Capital discipline is respectable: diluted shares crept only from 145.4M to 151.3M (about 1% CAGR), SBC is 0.6% of revenue, and buybacks recover about half of SBC - not aggressive return of capital, but per-share value is protected while the business self-funds growth. The soft spots are structural to E&C: gross margin sits around 14-15%, net cash is -324M, and short-term debt of 764M exceeds the 440M liquid cash pile, so the balance sheet is a working constraint rather than a cushion. With 1.62B of annual FCF that refinancing risk looks manageable, not acute.

Strengths 4
m75
Cash-backed earnings scaling fast
FCF grew from 196M (2021) to 1.62B (2025), OCF/NI 2.02x and accruals -4.4% of assets - reported profits are converting to cash cleanly.
m70
Durable top-line compounding with margin lift
Revenue 12.98B to 28.48B in four years while operating margin expanded 5.1% to 5.7% and net income more than doubled to 1.03B - operating leverage is real, not accounting-driven.
m55
Share count discipline
Diluted shares up only ~4% cumulatively over 4 years (145.4M to 151.3M); SBC 0.6% of revenue is low for the sector.
m45
Clean forensic signature
Beneish M -2.42, Altman Z 5.6 (safe), no accrual or manipulation flags - mechanical earnings quality checks are all green.
Concerns 3
m40
Thin structural margins
Gross margin ~14-15% and operating margin under 6% mean the business has limited absorption capacity for cost shocks, project overruns, or macro slowdowns in E&C demand.
m35
Net debt with near-term maturities
Net cash -324M, short-term debt 764M vs 440M liquid cash - refinancing exposure exists, though 1.62B FCF covers it comfortably.
m25
Buybacks only offset dilution
Repurchases equal 50% of SBC - shareholders get no meaningful net capital return, just neutralized comp dilution.
This looks like a well-run compounder in an unglamorous industry - the kind of business where the numbers all point the same direction over multiple years without any accounting acrobatics. Revenue doubled, margins expanded (not contracted) through the growth, and cash flow outpaced earnings. Share count barely moved. The E&C model caps how high I'll go - gross margins in the mid-teens are what they are, and the balance sheet is functional rather than fortress-like - but I see no forensic reason to doubt what's reported. Solidly Strong, comfortably in the mid-to-upper 70s on quality.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Backlog composition and customer concentration (utility/transmission vs renewables vs pipeline) to assess durability of the growth curve
  • Debt maturity ladder and revolver capacity to size the 764M short-term debt exposure
  • Acquisition contribution to revenue growth vs organic (to check whether operating leverage is real or acquired)
  • Working capital dynamics - large E&C firms can flatter FCF via receivables/billing timing
  • Terms of any convertibles or off-balance-sheet performance guarantees typical in E&C
Valuation / Mispricing
-81
Overvalued
edge √Σ 18 · risk √Σ 132 · conf 7/10
price $671.86 vs deserved ~$230-270 - stock trades ~2.5x fair value, roughly 60% overvalued. attractive below $300.00

The e2e synthesis pegs deserved value at roughly $213 composite and $231 signal-adjusted against a $672 price - implying the market pays about 3x what the blended methods support, or roughly 66% downside if those anchors are right. Even the most generous input, anchored-PE at $268, sits 60% below spot; the DCF at $205 and EPV floor at $62 point the same direction. Earnings quality is clean and the business is a Strong compounder, which legitimately lifts deserved value above the EPV floor - but not to $670.

Cheap signals 1
m18
Clean earnings, real compounder
High earnings quality and disciplined share count mean deserved value sits above the $62 EPV floor - just not near $672.
Rich / priced-in 4
m80
Composite FV implies 66% downside
Signal-adjusted FV $231 vs price $672 - a 3x premium. Even the most bullish method (anchored-PE $268) leaves 60% downside.
m72
DCF anchor far below price
DCF at $205 is 30% of the current price; to justify $672 the market needs growth/margin assumptions well above what DCF supports for an E&C model.
m65
Priced as a platform monopoly, not a contractor
Mid-teens gross margins and contract-services cyclicality are structural; the multiple assumes toll-road economics that E&C historically has not delivered.
m40
EPV floor at $62 flags fragility
Strip out growth and the business supports under 10% of the current price - all the value is future-dependent, so any transition-capex slowdown re-rates hard.
I can't make this cheap. Even giving full credit to the compounding story and the clean books, a fair range is somewhere around $230-290 - the stock is more than double that. This is a good business the market has already turned into a great story, and the price now embeds the great outcome. I'd need it near $300 before the risk-reward gets interesting, and honestly I'd wait for the first cyclical wobble to see if the narrative survives contact with an ugly quarter.
Verify before trusting this (5)
  • Backlog growth trajectory and book-to-bill trend in the next 10-Q
  • Segment margin detail - is electric power margin actually expanding or is mix flattering it
  • Guidance on utility capex cycle duration and customer concentration
  • Any large one-time contracts or acquisitions inflating recent growth optics
  • Free cash flow conversion vs reported EPS over the trailing eight quarters
General Sentiment
+4
Balanced
tail √Σ 86 · head √Σ 83 · conf 6/10

PWR sits inside a genuinely powerful narrative - the platform-monopoly of the energy-transition build-out - with strong intensity and medium cult following. That story is still doing the heavy lifting: the raised 2026 outlook, record backlog, and multiple bullish trade-press write-ups this week ('bigger story', 'reshape its growth', Zacks Bull of the Day) keep the tailwind alive. The macro tape is cooperative too - VIX at 14.9, S&P near highs, risk-on - and with a 1.22 beta this name naturally catches an updraft when money is chasing secular growth themes.

Tailwinds 3
m62
Energy-transition platform narrative still strong
Platform-monopoly archetype with strong intensity and moderate durability - utilities-must-hire-Quanta story remains the default frame in coverage, which supports a premium multiple even without new catalysts.
m45
Risk-on tape suits a 1.22-beta secular growth name
VIX sub-15, S&P at highs, and a building risk-on regime disproportionately help high-beta thematic industrials like PWR versus defensives.
m40
Beat-and-raise news flow this week
Raised 2026 revenue/EPS/cash flow outlook, record backlog, and multiple bullish op-eds (Zacks Bull of the Day, 'bigger story ahead') give bulls fresh talking points.
Headwinds 4
m58
3-month drawdown against good news = tape rejecting the price
Down 11.7% in three months despite a beat-raise and record backlog is the clearest sentiment tell: the marginal buyer is balking at valuation, and that overhang persists into every rally attempt.
m42
Valuation-vs-DCF becoming part of the narrative
Coverage is now openly framing 'valuation and execution risks' alongside the bull case - a subtle shift from pure story-buying to story-questioning that caps upside pressure.
m30
Peer MTZ stealing narrative share
MasTec's 40% EBITDA growth print and $21.4B backlog give thematic capital an alternative expression of the same trade, diluting PWR-specific flows.
m28
Rates backdrop still unhelpful for long-duration growth
10y at 4.69% and market PE of 26 mean any wobble in the secular story would re-rate PWR's long-duration cash flows hard given the 1.22 beta.
Net read: roughly balanced with a mild negative lean. The narrative is still strong and the macro tape is friendly, both of which should be pushing a 1.22-beta secular-growth industrial higher - but the stock is down 11.7% in three months into a beat-raise, which is the tape telling you sentiment on THIS name has already absorbed the good news and is now wrestling with price. I do not see a decisive force in either direction; I see a good story meeting a tired buyer. Call it Balanced, tilted toward a soft headwind until the tape proves it can rally on good news again.
Verify before trusting this (4)
  • Whether PWR can reclaim its 3-month highs on the raised guide or whether rallies keep getting sold (tape verdict on valuation)
  • Analyst target revisions in the next 2-3 weeks post-print - upgrades would refuel the tailwind, silence confirms fatigue
  • Any crack in the energy-transition narrative (policy shift, utility capex delay) - would hit this cohort disproportionately
  • Relative performance vs MTZ and other E&C peers - is PWR losing narrative primacy
The market-wide tape + this name's exposure to it (beta / sector / narrative durability). Context on the non-fundamental pressure — not a call on the business or the price. processId: detail-general-sentiment
Growth Outlook
not run

This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.

The forward growth verdict — is the business itself likely to grow (next 2 quarters / year 1 / years 2–3), judged against its category and against printed expectations. The full horizon ladder + creme renders on the Growth Outlook card above. Not a call on the price (Valuation owns that) or the tape (Sentiment owns that).
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Lenses kept deliberately separate — Company Quality (price-agnostic), Valuation (price-conditional), General Sentiment (non-fundamental macro/narrative pressure), and Growth Outlook (the forward growth verdict). The scores are not blended. Filing-level items (convertibles, lock-ups, customer concentration) are v2 — see each lens's "verify."
Price Prediction
Lower -13.7% v0.6.0 View full prediction →

When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, PWR was $671.86. We expect it to be $580.00 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $300.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.

Price when predicted$671.86
Our estimate for Feb 2027$580.00-13.7%
Great value below$300.00
Price history shown (6 Months)

Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.

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My Notes personal — only you see this
v1.1.562 · 9b2927c4 · 2026-08-22 16:52:06