Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$482.31
6-month call
Bear -6.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$452.00
Great value below
$300.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.3% to $452.00
Predicted High
$495.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$452.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:51 am
Bear
TT trends lower to
$452.00
(-6.3% from $482.31)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisTT is richly valued vs fair-value anchors but momentum, a guidance raise, completed buyback, and risk-on tape sustain the platform-monopoly narrative near term. Expect modest drift higher into fall on sentiment, then gradual mean-reversion pressure as valuation gravity reasserts, though nowhere near DCF given quality score of 76.
Invalidated ifA close below $440 breaks the momentum structure; alternatively a break above $520 on new catalyst invalidates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $482.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $482.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $451.60–$513.02 typical range · internal point $487.50 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and buyback afterglow carry drift higher |
| What actually happened: closed $453.43 on Aug 21, 2026 = -6.0% vs the call (predicted +1.1%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.1 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $437.81–$526.81 typical range · internal point $492.00 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Momentum persists absent catalyst, no earnings on calendar |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $495.00 | — | +2.6% | 5/10 | Late-October Q3 print likely modest beat continues trend |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $486.00 | — | +0.8% | 4/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation concerns creep in |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $472.00 | — | -2.1% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended multiple |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $460.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | January rotation away from richly valued names |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $452.00 | — | -6.3% | 3/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $434.14 (-10.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 2 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Degraded
[critical] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $482.31 |
| Composite fair value | $228.13 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $224.90 |
| DCF fair value | $155.91 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $483.60 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $300.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.9% 3m 32.0% 6m 31.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.91 3m 1.19 5m 1.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 10.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | TT-20260809-000707-02f7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-TT-20260809-004137-cc18 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-TT-20260809-004137-cc18 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-TT-20260809-004137-cc18 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-TT-20260809-004137-cc18 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | TT-20260809-000707-02f7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | TT-20260809-000707-02f7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $482.31 | $452.00 | -6.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 7, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.