Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$139.02
6-month call
Bear -6.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$129.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-6.8% to $129.50
Predicted High
$138.40
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$129.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-6.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:51 am
Bear
PEP trends lower to
$129.50
(-6.8% from $139.02)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisPEP trades meaningfully above composite fair value ($117) with weak sentiment and a tired defensive narrative in a risk-on tape. Expect gradual drift lower toward value gravity, though low beta and dividend support cushion the decline. No near-term earnings catalyst to force repricing.
Invalidated ifA break above $145 on volume, or a positive pre-announcement/guidance raise, would invalidate the drift-lower thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $139.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $139.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $132.31–$145.73 typical range · internal point $138.40 | — | ±4.8% | 7/10 | Low-beta drift, tired narrative, risk-on tape ignores defensive |
| What actually happened: closed $143.48 on Aug 21, 2026 = +3.2% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.7 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.8%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $129.30–$148.74 typical range · internal point $137.20 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment headwind persists, no catalyst to lift shares |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $135.50 | — | -2.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, valuation gravity begins asserting |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $133.80 | — | -3.8% | 5/10 | Earnings likely fine but guidance keeps lid on multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $132.00 | — | -5.0% | 4/10 | Year-end rotation away from defensives in risk-on regime |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $131.00 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | January reset, value gap still wide versus $117 anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $129.50 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward composite fair value continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $135.43 (-2.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $139.02 |
| Composite fair value | $116.97 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $95.81 |
| DCF fair value | $100.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $176.93 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | +0 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +44 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 21.0% 3m 24.2% 6m 21.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.36 3m -0.38 5m -0.13 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | 5d behind | PEP-20260804-000624-e77d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PEP-20260809-004137-6ef8 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PEP-20260809-004137-6ef8 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PEP-20260809-004137-6ef8 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-PEP-20260809-004137-6ef8 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | PEP-20260809-000707-ad82 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | PEP-20260809-000707-ad82 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $139.02 | $129.50 | -6.8% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 27, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $141.39 | $139.80 | -1.1% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.