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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +20 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 44 · Value 0 · Sentiment -22 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $124.88 vs $139.02 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
PepsiCo, Inc.
PEP NASDAQPepsiCo, Inc. is a global food and beverage company that manufactures, markets, and distributes a broad portfolio of beverages, snacks, and convenient foods worldwide. Headquartered in Purchase, New York, PepsiCo focuses on branded products that span carbonated soft drinks, sports and energy beverages, juice drinks, bottled water, ready-to-drink teas and coffees, and home carbonation systems. In convenient foods, the company offers salty snacks, cereals, granola bars, rice and pasta products, baking mixes, and other pantry staples under well-known brands such as Lay’s, Doritos, Cheetos, Quaker, Gatorade, Pepsi, and Mountain Dew. PepsiCo organizes its operations across multiple geographic and product-based segments, including dedicated North American food and beverage units and regional divisions covering Latin America, Europe, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Its products reach consumers through a mix of direct store delivery, customer warehouse, foodservice, vending, and e-commerce channels, serving retailers, wholesalers, foodservice operators, and online platforms in more than 200 countries and territories. Founded in 1965 and based in the United States, PepsiCo today plays a central role in the global market for branded beverages and convenient foods.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 6.00
Total Equity: $20.55B
Shares: 1,373,000,000
Total Debt: $49.18B
Cash: $9.16B
EBITDA: $14.95B
Total Debt: $49.18B
Cash: $9.16B
Revenue: $93.93B
Revenue: $93.93B
Revenue: $93.93B
Total Equity: $20.55B
Tax Rate: 19.0%
Equity: $20.55B
Total Debt: $49.18B
Cash: $9.16B
Current Liabilities: $32.76B
Long-Term Debt: $42.32B
Total Debt: $49.18B
Total Equity: $20.55B
Shares: 1,373,000,000
Shares: 1,373,000,000
CapEx: -$4.42B
Shares: 1,373,000,000
Stock Price: $139.02
Net Income: $8.24B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:26am (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $79.5B | $86.4B | $91.5B | $91.9B | $93.9B |
| Cost of Revenue | $37.1B | $40.6B | $41.9B | $41.7B | $43.1B |
| Gross Profit | $42.4B | $45.8B | $49.6B | $50.1B | $50.9B |
| Operating Expenses | $31.2B | $34.3B | $37.6B | $37.2B | $39.4B |
| Operating Income | $11.2B | $11.5B | $12.0B | $12.9B | $11.5B |
| Net Income | $7.6B | $8.9B | $9.1B | $9.6B | $8.2B |
| EBITDA | $13.9B | $14.3B | $14.9B | $16.0B | $14.9B |
| EPS | $5.51 | $6.45 | $6.59 | $6.97 | $6.02 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.49 | $6.42 | $6.56 | $6.95 | $6.00 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Jul 31, 2026 9:18am (23d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $5.6B | $5.0B | $9.7B | $8.5B | $9.2B |
| Total Current Assets | $21.8B | $21.5B | $27.0B | $25.8B | $27.9B |
| Total Assets | $92.4B | $92.2B | $100.5B | $99.5B | $107.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $26.2B | $26.8B | $31.6B | $31.5B | $32.8B |
| Long-Term Debt | $36.0B | $35.7B | $37.6B | $37.2B | $42.3B |
| Total Liabilities | $76.2B | $74.9B | $81.9B | $81.3B | $86.9B |
| Total Equity | $16.2B | $17.3B | $18.6B | $18.2B | $20.5B |
| Retained Earnings | $65.2B | $67.8B | $70.0B | $72.3B | $72.8B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:26am (14d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $11.6B | $10.8B | $13.4B | $12.5B | $12.1B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$4.6B | -$5.2B | -$5.5B | -$5.3B | -$4.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | $7.0B | $5.6B | $7.9B | $7.2B | $7.7B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | $667.0M | $919.0M | $2.5B | $156.0M | $4.1B |
| Dividends Paid | -$5.8B | -$6.2B | -$6.7B | -$7.2B | -$7.6B |
| Stock Buybacks | -$106.0M | -$1.5B | -$1.0B | -$1.0B | -$1.0B |
| Net Change in Cash | -$2.5B | -$607.0M | $4.7B | -$1.2B | $651.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:26am (14d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +8.7% | +5.9% | +0.4% | +2.3% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +8.1% | +8.2% | +1.0% | +1.5% |
| Operating Income Growth | +3.1% | +4.1% | +7.5% | -10.8% |
| Net Income Growth | +17.0% | +1.8% | +5.6% | -14.0% |
| EBITDA Growth | +2.9% | +4.6% | +7.5% | -6.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 9, 2026 12:07am (14d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | $1.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-05 | $1.48 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-06 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-05 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-05 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-06 | $1.42 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-07 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-06 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-06 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-07 | $1.36 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-29 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-30 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2023-08-31 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-01 | $1.27 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-02 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-01 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-01 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-02 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2022-03-03 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
| 2021-12-02 | $1.08 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Risk : Reward — if the last quarter repeats
Live · as of 2026-08-19 10:45Even the bull case prices 9% below today — the ratio here measures the model-vs-market gap, not payoff odds. Another quarter like the worst recent one costs 35%.
| Case | Growth | Margin | Fair value | vs price ($139.02) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull — recovery | +6% | 12.4% | $126.53 | -9% |
| Base — stabilizes | +4% | 10.8% | $104.40 | -25% |
| Bear — keeps slipping | +2% | 9.2% | $84.57 | -39% |
| Stress — last quarter repeats | +3% | 9.7% | $90.81 | -35% |
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw quarterlies first: TTM revenue runs roughly $96.9B (Q2'26 $24.18 + Q1'26 $19.44 + Q4'25 $29.34 + Q3'25 $23.94), up from $91.8B a year prior — call it ~3% top-line, not the 1.3% CAGR the momentum table cites (which is dragged by the 5-year base). TTM net income is roughly $10.45B, materially better than 2024's $9.58B and 2025's reported $8.24B. The margin volatility is the real story: Q2'25 collapsed to 5.6% (charges, likely impairments/restructuring around Quaker recall and international write-downs), Q4'24 was 5.5%, but the last two prints are 12% and 12.3% — back to normal. So the "earnings CAGR -4.7%" is an artifact of a trough year, not a trend. On $10.45B TTM NI, the multiple is ~18x, not 23x — meaningfully cheaper than the synthesis assumes.
That reframing matters because the synthesis verdict ($95.81 signal-adjusted fair value, -31% downside) leans on a DCF that appears to extrapolate the depressed 2025 earnings base. The Market Forces "value trap in structural decline" call is the most aggressive claim in the file and I think it's overreaching. GLP-1 impact on salty snacks and beverages is real but has been discussed for 24+ months; PEP still grew revenue 2.3% YoY in the latest quarter and expanded margins sequentially. If demand were being "permanently destroyed," you'd see it in Frito-Lay volumes collapsing, not in a 2.3% print. The stock is already down from ~$171 to $139 (-19%), so the market has partially digested the bear case. A 4.18% dividend yield with 93% payout is stretched but covered by $7.7B FCF against ~$7.6B in dividends — thin, not broken.
The contrarian pushback on my own read: payout ratio at 92.7% leaves zero cushion for a bad year, debt/equity of 2.39 and current ratio 0.85 mean any FCF hiccup pressures the dividend, and ROIC of 15.4% against a mid-teens cost of equity means marginal capital allocation isn't creating much value. The narrative layer's point about "bond substitute" pricing is fair — if the 10Y stays above 4.5%, a 4.2% dividend with 1-3% growth isn't compelling versus risk-free. Insider activity is genuinely neutral (one small 2,900 share sale against routine awards) — no signal either direction. The Q4'25 margin of 8.7% on $29.3B is the seasonal peak revenue quarter running below the 12% Q2'26 rate, which suggests either the recent margin recovery isn't fully durable or Q4 carries structurally higher promo/mix pressure. I'd want to see Q3'26 confirm the 12% margin before extrapolating.
Net: I partially dissent from the synthesis "overvalued to $95.81" verdict. That number bakes in trough earnings as run-rate. On normalized $10-10.5B NI and 3% growth, fair value is closer to $125-135 (18-20x normalized) — meaning PEP is roughly fairly valued to modestly overvalued at $139, not 31% overvalued. I agree directionally with the synthesis (not a buy here) but disagree on magnitude and reasoning. The Market Forces "structural decline value trap" framing is too strong given the actual quarterly trajectory shows stabilization, not deterioration. The Narrative layer's characterization of "45% premium to DCF is pure narrative" is only true if you accept the DCF inputs, which I don't. This is a fairly-valued mature compounder with a stretched but covered dividend, not a value trap and not a bargain. The right action is: hold if owned for income, don't initiate here, revisit under $125 where the margin of safety on normalized earnings becomes real, or wait for Q3'26 to confirm margin recovery is durable before paying up.
GPT Reading
At $139, PepsiCo is being valued like a high-quality staple with dependable cash generation, but the actual earnings and cash flow trend is weaker than that label implies. Revenue has grown from $79.5B in 2021 to $93.9B in 2025, which looks fine on the surface, yet that is only mid-single-digit cumulative growth recently and just 2.3% YoY on the latest quarter. More importantly, the income statement has not followed through: operating income fell from $12.89B in 2024 to $11.50B in 2025, and net income dropped from $9.58B to $8.24B despite higher sales. That is the core issue here. This is not a business showing clear evidence of compounding through pricing power anymore; it is a business holding revenue while profitability slips. The quarterly pattern reinforces that concern: margins bounced back to 12.0% and 12.3% in the last two quarters, but the prior four quarters included two very weak prints at 5.5% and 5.6%, and the full-year result still says normalized earnings power is under pressure.
The balance between valuation and business quality looks unfavorable. A 23.2x P/E and 15.4x EV/EBITDA can be justified for a staple if earnings are steadily advancing and free cash flow comfortably covers capital returns. Here, free cash flow was $7.67B in 2025 against net income of $8.24B, respectable but not exceptional for a company with PepsiCo’s maturity, and the dividend payout ratio is already 92.7%. That means the dividend yield of 4.2% is attractive, but not especially flexible; there is less room to absorb prolonged earnings softness without either levering further or slowing dividend growth meaningfully. Net debt is roughly $40B after subtracting $9.16B cash from $49.18B debt, while equity is only $20.55B, which is why P/B and debt-to-equity look stretched. The reported 40% ROE flatters the economics because the balance sheet is heavily levered. I care more about the 15.4% ROIC, which is still solid, but not enough on its own to justify paying a premium multiple for a 1%-2% revenue grower with declining earnings.
What stands out most is that the market still seems to be paying for the old PepsiCo script: stable volumes, recurring price-led growth, durable margin structure, and bond-like dependability. The raw data instead show a company that still has enormous brand and distribution advantages but is increasingly converting those advantages into less earnings growth than investors are used to. Annual revenue grew just $2.1B in 2025, while operating profit fell $1.4B. Recent quarterly revenue improved from $22.73B to $24.18B YoY, but net income only recovered from an unusually weak $1.26B to $2.98B; that’s encouraging tactically, yet not enough to erase the broader flat-to-down earnings arc. For me, this is not a “structural decline” story, but it is a de-rating story: if growth is low and margins are not expanding, PepsiCo should trade more like a steady utility-like consumer staple than a premium compounder. That points to fair value closer to 18x-20x earnings, not 23x, which suggests something like $110-$125 rather than $139.
The strongest pushback is obvious and serious: PepsiCo remains one of the best assets in global staples. Gross margin held at 54.2% in 2025, essentially above 2022 and 2023 levels, and the latest two quarters showed net margins back around 12%, implying some of last year’s profit pressure may have been temporary rather than structural. Revenue has not broken; it has kept rising, and a business producing $12.09B of operating cash flow with a 4%+ dividend yield will always command a scarcity premium in a volatile market. The latest quarter’s $24.18B revenue versus $22.73B a year earlier and $2.98B of net income versus $1.26B could be read as evidence that earnings troughed and the multiple is simply discounting normalization. If that is the right read, then 23x on depressed earnings is not expensive at all. I weigh that argument less heavily because the annual numbers still show too many years of stagnating profit despite favorable pricing history; until margin recovery is visible at the full-year level, I am not willing to pay up for “normalization” as though it is already proven.
What would change my mind is simple: I’d need to see earnings growth catch up to revenue growth in a durable way. If PepsiCo can turn the latest quarterly rebound into a full-year run rate with revenue above $96B, operating income back above $12.5B, net income above $9B, and free cash flow moving toward $9B while holding debt roughly flat, then the current price would look much more defensible. Conversely, if revenue remains stuck in the 1%-3% range and net income continues to trail prior peaks, the stock should not hold a low-20s earnings multiple. This is a good company, but at $139 the market is still paying for a quality premium that the recent financial trajectory no longer fully earns.
Grok Reading
grok-critique step) alongside the other Big-3 seats, when a
report is run on this ticker.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
Revenue has climbed steadily from 79.5B in 2021 to 93.9B in 2025, gross margin has held in a tight 53-54.6% band, and diluted share count has actually shrunk modestly (-0.3% CAGR) with buybacks at 275% of SBC — this is a mature, self-funding earner with real pricing power and disciplined capital return. Earnings quality is high: OCF/NI at 1.4x, accruals at -3.5% of assets, Altman Z of 3.43 in the safe zone, and 2025 FCF of 7.67B tracking net income of 8.24B cleanly. No mechanical red flags in the forensic checks.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Root cause of the 2025 operating margin compression to 12.2% — mix, restructuring charges, impairment, or underlying volume weakness in Frito-Lay/beverages
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average coupon on the ~40B net debt position
- Volume vs price/mix split in 2025 revenue growth — is the top line still growing on real units or purely on price
- Any goodwill/intangible impairments or one-time items depressing 2025 net income
- Segment-level operating margin trends (PBNA, Frito-Lay NA, international) to see where the pressure originates
None surfaced.
None surfaced.
PEP sits in a strange spot for a sentiment lens. The tape is mildly risk-on (VIX 14.9, S&P at highs), which normally is a slight negative for defensive bond-proxies as money rotates into higher-beta names. But with beta 0.36, PEP barely feels the tape either way; it is not being sold to fund risk, but it is also not catching any of the risk-on bid. Analyst tone is 'moderately optimistic' after 3 years of a 16% drawdown, and the framing in recent coverage ('looks reasonable', DCF at fair value) is neutral-to-constructive rather than euphoric or capitulatory. There is no active narrative break here. The steady-compounder story is durable and low-cult; the bear case (sugar regulation, health rotation, EM FX) has been present for years without escalating in the news flow. Meanwhile, competitor noise around Celsius (activist pressure, earnings miss) is mildly favorable at the margin for the incumbent beverage giants but not a real driver. Net: no dominant force. The narrative is quietly fading rather than breaking, macro is neutral for a 0.36-beta defensive, and analyst tone is lukewarm-positive. That is textbook balanced pressure.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Any acceleration in GLP-1 / health-rotation narrative that would reignite the bear story
- Sector rotation out of defensives if risk-on intensifies
- Target price revisions from major sell-side after next print
- Volume trends in North America Beverages - the crack that would break the compounder story
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 9, 2026, PEP was $139.02. We expect it to be $129.50 by Feb 2027. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 9, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.