Made on
Aug 9, 2026
Price at call
$63.94
6-month call
Neutral -4.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$61.00
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-4.6% to $61.00
Predicted High
$64.50
at 3 months
Predicted Low
$61.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 9, 2026 12:54 am
Neutral
USB trends range-bound to
$61.00
(-4.6% from $63.94)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisUSB drifts slightly lower over six months as price sits above composite fair value ($56.24) and value gravity acts gradually, but a risk-on tape, low beta, and a solid earnings track record cushion the fade. Earnings in mid-October likely provides a small bump before mean reversion resumes.
Invalidated ifA close above $68 sustained, or an earnings miss driving below $58, would falsify this gently declining path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $63.94 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 9, 2026 | — | $63.94 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 23, 2026 | $60.97–$66.91 typical range · internal point $64.20 | — | ±4.6% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and new-highs tag sustain drift |
| What actually happened: closed $62.05 on Aug 21, 2026 = -3.0% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±4.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 9, 2026 | $59.63–$68.25 typical range · internal point $64.00 | — | ±6.7% | 6/10 | Quiet summer trade near current levels |
| 2 months | Oct 9, 2026 | $63.50 | — | -0.7% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, mild valuation drag |
| 3 months | Nov 9, 2026 | $64.50 | — | +0.9% | 5/10 | Q3 beat streak likely extends, small pop |
| 4 months | Dec 9, 2026 | $63.00 | — | -1.5% | 4/10 | Post-earnings fade toward fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 9, 2027 | $62.00 | — | -3.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward $56 anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 9, 2027 | $61.00 | — | -4.6% | 4/10 | Gradual mean reversion, regime uncertainty grows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $63.33 (-1.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $63.94 |
| Composite fair value | $56.24 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $55.17 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $56.24 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | -63 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 17.3% 3m 23.3% 6m 23.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.74 3m 0.29 5m 0.48 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | USB-20260809-000709-438c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-USB-20260809-004137-7381 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-USB-20260809-004137-7381 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-USB-20260809-004137-7381 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | ext-USB-20260809-004137-7381 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 9, 2026 | freshest | USB-20260809-000709-438c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $63.94 | $61.00 | -4.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bull | $61.00 | $64.41 | +5.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.