Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$353.91
6-month call
Bear -9.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$322.00
Great value below
$240.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.0% to $322.00
Predicted High
$352.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$322.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:55 am
Bear
MAR trends lower to
$322.00
(-9.0% from $353.91)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisMAR trades at a rich premium to fair value with mild negative sentiment and 'priced for perfection' risk, but a calm risk-on tape and low beta limit near-term downside. Expect a slow drift lower over 6 months as valuation gravity asserts itself, without a dramatic collapse absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $370 on strong earnings or hotel RevPAR upside would invalidate; conversely a break below $320 accelerates the decay.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $353.91 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $353.91 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $334.14–$373.68 typical range · internal point $352.50 | — | ±5.6% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds, low beta anchors near current |
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $325.26–$382.56 typical range · internal point $349.00 | — | ±8.1% | 6/10 | Mild sentiment drag, no catalyst either direction |
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $344.00 | — | -2.8% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins asserting, priced-for-perfection concerns |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $338.00 | — | -4.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk, revenue-miss chatter weighs |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $332.00 | — | -6.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, premium multiple compresses modestly |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $326.00 | — | -7.9% | 4/10 | January reset, fair-value pull continues |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $322.00 | — | -9.0% | 3/10 | Converges toward deterministic baseline over horizon |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $316.85 (-10.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $353.91 |
| Composite fair value | $156.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $155.74 |
| DCF fair value | $116.17 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $283.58 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $240.00 |
| Value net score | -75 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.6% 3m 28.0% 6m 30.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.47 3m 0.05 5m 0.65 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 8.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | MAR-20260810-000802-b3fa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-MAR-20260810-004545-f7e4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-MAR-20260810-004545-f7e4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-MAR-20260810-004545-f7e4 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-MAR-20260810-004545-f7e4 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | MAR-20260810-000802-b3fa |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | MAR-20260810-000802-b3fa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $353.91 | $322.00 | -9.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $371.16 | $339.30 | -8.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.