CME
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CME Group Inc. Class A Common Stock
Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$263.66
6-month call
Neutral +2.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$270.50
Great value below
$220.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+2.6% to $270.50
Predicted High
$270.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$260.00
at 2 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-1.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:55 am
Neutral
CME trends range-bound to
$270.50
(+2.6% from $263.66)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisCME trades slightly above composite fair value with strong quality and calm risk-on tape offsetting a mild stretched signal. Expect a modest drift lower toward the signal-adjusted anchor near $260, then gentle recovery as the quasi-utility narrative and beat cadence reassert, ending near the anchored-PE around $270.
Invalidated ifA break below $250 on volume or a regime flip to risk-off would falsify the constructive drift; a breakout above $278 would indicate stronger momentum than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $263.66 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $263.66 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $246.25–$281.07 typical range · internal point $263.00 | — | ±6.6% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, no catalyst, tracks recent range |
| What actually happened: closed $274.98 on Aug 21, 2026 = +4.3% vs the call (predicted -0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.5 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $238.43–$288.89 typical range · internal point $261.50 | — | ±9.6% | 6/10 | Mild mean-reversion toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| What actually happened: closed $274.70 on Sep 9, 2026 = +4.2% vs the call (predicted -0.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.0 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.6%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $260.00 | — | -1.4% | 5/10 | Stretched whisper weighs, no earnings catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $264.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Quality bid reasserts, quasi-utility narrative supports |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $267.00 | — | +1.3% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors stable cash generators |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $269.00 | — | +2.0% | 4/10 | Approach to anchored-PE anchor, calm tape |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $270.50 | — | +2.6% | 3/10 | Convergence near anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $263.72 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $263.66 |
| Composite fair value | $213.67 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $259.78 |
| DCF fair value | $234.45 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $269.71 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $220.00 |
| Value net score | -35 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +89 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.5% 3m 33.1% 6m 28.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.86 3m -0.60 5m -0.42 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -11.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | CME-20260810-000802-d053 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260810-004545-6152 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260810-004545-6152 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260810-004545-6152 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-CME-20260810-004545-6152 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | CME-20260810-000802-d053 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.