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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for CME Group Inc. (CME) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Watch · Gem Score +21 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality 89 · Value -35 · Sentiment 20 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $219.05 vs $263.66 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
price-history,income-trend,key-metrics,financials(statement tables),insider-trading. The analysis above is public; the raw data tables require a free account.
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any ticker resolves at delvantic.com/stock/TICKER ·
raw inputs are public-company filings and market data (via licensed data feeds);
every model, score, lens read, and prediction on this page is Delvantic's own analysis.
CME Group Inc.
CME NASDAQCME Group Inc. is a global financial market infrastructure company that operates one of the world’s leading derivatives marketplaces. The company provides platforms for trading futures, options, cash, and over-the-counter products, enabling participants to manage risk across major asset classes such as interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agricultural commodities, and metals. CME Group also offers central counterparty clearing services, helping reduce counterparty and systemic risk in the financial system. In addition, it delivers market data, analytics, and information services that support price discovery and trading decisions for institutions, corporations, and professional traders worldwide. Through its designated contract markets and electronic trading systems, CME Group plays a central role in global price formation and risk transfer, supporting liquidity and transparency in both developed and emerging markets. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, it serves a broad range of financial, commercial, and industrial clients around the world.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 11.16
Total Equity: $28.73B
Shares: 364,892,473
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.42B
EBITDA: $98.30M
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.42B
Revenue: $6.52B
Revenue: $6.52B
Revenue: $6.52B
Total Equity: $28.73B
Tax Rate: 23.6%
Equity: $28.73B
Total Debt: $0.00
Cash: $4.42B
Current Liabilities: $160.30B
Long-Term Debt: $0.00
Total Debt: $0.00
Total Equity: $28.73B
Shares: 364,892,473
Shares: 364,892,473
CapEx: -$83.50M
Shares: 364,892,473
Stock Price: $263.66
Net Income: $4.07B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:28am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.6B | $6.1B | $6.5B |
| Cost of Revenue | $837.0M | $753.1M | $828.6M | $850.3M | $907.0M |
| Gross Profit | $3.9B | $4.3B | $4.8B | $5.3B | $5.6B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.2B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.3B | $1.4B |
| Operating Income | $2.6B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.9B | $4.2B |
| Net Income | $2.6B | $2.7B | $3.2B | $3.5B | $4.1B |
| EBITDA | $3.6B | $1.8B | -$609.7M | $960.0M | $98.3M |
| EPS | $7.30 | $7.41 | $8.87 | $9.69 | $11.18 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $7.29 | $7.40 | $8.86 | $9.67 | $11.16 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:05am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $2.8B | $2.7B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $4.4B |
| Total Current Assets | $161.8B | $139.1B | $94.9B | $103.0B | $165.4B |
| Total Assets | $196.8B | $174.2B | $129.7B | $137.4B | $198.4B |
| Current Liabilities | $160.4B | $137.7B | $93.4B | $102.3B | $160.3B |
| Long-Term Debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total Liabilities | $169.4B | $147.3B | $103.0B | $111.0B | $169.7B |
| Total Equity | $27.4B | $26.9B | $26.7B | $26.5B | $28.7B |
| Retained Earnings | $5.2B | $4.7B | $4.5B | $4.2B | $6.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:28am (16d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.4B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $3.7B | $4.3B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$127.2M | -$89.7M | -$76.4M | -$94.0M | -$83.5M |
| Free Cash Flow | $2.3B | $3.0B | $3.4B | $3.6B | $4.2B |
| Acquisitions (net) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dividends Paid | -$2.2B | -$2.6B | -$3.2B | -$3.6B | -$3.9B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | — | — | — | — |
| Net Change in Cash | $72.4B | -$22.8B | -$44.9B | $8.7B | $62.3B |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 7, 2026 4:28am (16d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +7.0% | +11.1% | +9.9% | +6.4% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +10.7% | +11.3% | +11.1% | +6.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +14.0% | +13.9% | +14.4% | +7.6% |
| Net Income Growth | +2.0% | +19.9% | +9.3% | +15.5% |
| EBITDA Growth | -49.8% | -133.6% | +257.5% | -89.8% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 6, 2026 7:38am (17d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | $1.30 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | $7.45 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-12 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-09 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-06-09 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2025-03-07 | $1.25 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-27 | $5.80 | — | — | — |
| 2024-12-09 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2024-09-09 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2024-06-07 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-07 | $1.15 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-27 | $5.25 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-07 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-07 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2023-06-08 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2023-03-09 | $1.10 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-27 | $4.50 | — | — | — |
| 2022-12-08 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2022-09-08 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
| 2022-06-09 | $1.00 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
Claude Reading
Looking at the raw numbers first: CME has compounded revenue from $4.69B (2021) to $6.52B (2025), a ~8% CAGR, with operating income growing from $2.65B to $4.23B — meaningful operating leverage as op margin expanded from 56.5% to 64.9%. NI CAGR of 12.4% is real. The 2026 quarterly data is odd: Q1 2026 at $1.88B would be a record, Q2 2026 drops to $1.71B — this looks consistent with elevated Q1 volatility (rate/tariff-driven trading volume spike) fading. TTM revenue tracking ~$6.78B implies ~4% YoY deceleration from the Q1 peak. The balance sheet is pristine: zero debt, $4.42B cash, $28.7B equity. FCF of $4.19B on $4.28B OCF is near-perfect conversion; capex of $83M on $6.5B revenue (~1.3%) confirms this is a toll-booth, not a business. ROE of 14% looks mediocre until you notice ROIC of 13.3% on an equity-heavy balance sheet stuffed with clearing collateral — the operating economics are far better than the headline ratio suggests.
Valuation reality check: at $263.66 and ~$4.07B NI, P/E is ~23.3x, P/FCF ~22.6x. Dividend yield 4.27% with a 96.6% payout ratio — that's the entire earnings stream returned to shareholders, meaning growth must come from organic volume/pricing, not reinvestment. Historical CME trades 20-25x, so this isn't screamingly expensive but there's no margin of safety. The synthesis composite fair value of $213.67 implies ~19% downside on pure DCF, and I think that's directionally right before the "signal adjustment" massages it to $259.78 — that adjustment feels like it's smuggling in the market's current premium rather than challenging it. A 23x multiple on a business growing earnings 12% with a 96% payout is defensible but not cheap; fair value on a normalized volume assumption is probably $220-240.
Where I push back on the prior models: the pre-flight thesis correctly flags that current volumes are elevated by macro volatility, but the synthesis and market-forces layers underweight this. Q1 2026's $1.88B print is not a new baseline — it's the peak of a rate-cut/tariff-uncertainty cycle. If volatility normalizes in 2026-2027, revenue could flatline or dip 3-5%, and at 96% payout there is no cushion. The "Net Insider Buying" secondary signal is misleading: the transaction list shows almost entirely A-Awards (grants, not conviction buys) plus two P-Purchases totaling 339 shares — that's noise, not signal. The narrative layer calling this "anchored" and fundamentals-driven is correct, and I agree the cult coefficient is zero — nobody buys CME for a story. The EV/EBITDA of 922x anomaly is a data artifact (likely clearing-house liabilities inflating EV); ignore it entirely.
Contrarian case worth taking seriously: CME's moat is real (network effects in Treasury/Eurodollar/SOFR futures, regulatory entrenchment), but three risks are underpriced. First, the FICC Treasury clearing mandate and BGC/FMX competition in rates futures — FMX launched with heavyweight backing and while share loss has been minimal so far, this is the first credible competitive threat in a decade. Second, if the Fed's rate path stabilizes in 2026, interest-rate-complex volumes (CME's biggest revenue segment) mean-revert lower. Third, the 96% payout ratio leaves zero optionality for M&A or tech investment — any capital allocation surprise is a negative. Against this, the bull case that crypto derivatives and event contracts drive next-leg growth is real but small relative to the base — even doubling crypto contributes maybe 3-4% to revenue.
GPT Reading
CME is the kind of business investors should want to own, but not at any price, and here the price already captures most of the quality. The operating profile is extraordinary: 2025 revenue of $6.52B produced $4.23B of operating income and $4.07B of net income, a 64.9% operating margin and 62.5% net margin. Free cash flow was $4.19B on just $83.5M of capex, which tells you this is not a capital-hungry franchise but a tollbooth with immense operating leverage. The balance sheet is equally clean, with $4.42B of cash and no debt. Over the last five years, revenue grew from $4.69B to $6.52B, while net income climbed from $2.64B to $4.07B; that is a very real step-up in earnings power, not financial engineering. The latest quarter reinforces it: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.71B versus $1.69B a year ago, while net income ticked from $1.03B to $1.04B and margin improved to 61.1%.
What stands out, though, is that the market is already paying a full premium for this consistency. At $94.8B market cap against $4.07B of 2025 earnings, the stock sits around 23-24x trailing earnings and about 22.6x free cash flow. For a business whose topline has been compounding at roughly 8% and whose latest reported quarterly revenue growth is only about 1.2% year over year in Q2, that is not cheap. Even using the stronger annual trend, the valuation implies investors are capitalizing CME as a durable compounder with little risk of cyclical volume normalization. That may prove broadly right, but the upside from here looks thin because this is a mature exchange/clearing monopoly already monetizing its moat at elite margins. When a company already converts over 60 cents of every revenue dollar into earnings, further margin expansion is naturally limited; future returns have to come mostly from volume and pricing growth, and those are more macro-sensitive than the quality multiple suggests.
There is also a subtle tension in the quarterly pattern. Full-year 2025 was excellent, with revenue up 6.4% from 2024 and net income up 15.3%, but the sequence from Q3 2025 through Q2 2026 is not a straight acceleration story: $1.54B, $1.65B, $1.88B, then $1.71B. That does not bother me operationally because this business is volume-driven and quarter-to-quarter lumpiness is normal, but it does matter for valuation discipline. Investors are treating CME as if elevated derivatives demand, clearing activity, and data monetization are near-permanent supports. If macro volatility cools or rate futures activity normalizes, you could still have a fantastic business and a mediocre stock. A 4.27% dividend yield helps, but the 96.6% payout ratio tells you most of the cash is already spoken for; this is an income-and-stability vehicle more than a reinvestment machine with large internal compounding runways.
The best argument against my caution is straightforward: businesses this dominant almost never screen “cheap,” and trying to wait for a bargain often means never owning them. CME’s five-year earnings CAGR of 12.4% is stronger than many “mature” labels imply, ROE of 14.2% is achieved without leverage, and the zero-debt balance sheet materially lowers risk. If 2026 can sustain something like the Q1-Q2 revenue run rate, annualized sales are already trending above 2025, and even modest operating leverage can keep EPS growing high single digits to low teens. In that case, 23x earnings is not excessive for a quasi-utility with monopoly-like economics, recession resilience, and shareholder cash returns. I take that seriously. My pushback is simply that the current price does not leave much room for the normal ebb and flow of trading volumes; to earn a clearly attractive return from $263, you need the next few years to look better than “solid.”
What would change my mind is not another proof that CME is high quality — that is already obvious — but evidence that growth has moved to a sustainably higher plane. If 2026 revenue lands meaningfully above $7.0B with net income pushing toward $4.4B-$4.5B, or if quarterly revenue starts holding above $1.8B without a margin giveback, then I would accept that the premium multiple is earned and that fair value is comfortably above today’s price. On the other hand, if revenue slips back toward the $1.5B-$1.6B quarterly range and earnings flatten around the current $4.0B run rate, the stock should trade more like a low-20s-to-high-teens multiple compounder, which points to a value closer to the low-$220s to mid-$240s than the current quote.
Grok Reading
CME Group’s numbers describe a cash-compounding infrastructure monopoly operating at peak economic efficiency. Annual revenue climbed from $4.69B in 2021 to $6.52B in 2025, an 8.1% CAGR, while net income advanced faster at 12.4% to $4.07B, pushing net margins to 62.5%. The latest full-year free-cash-flow print of $4.19B on only $83.5M of capex shows near-total conversion; with zero debt and $4.42B in cash against $28.73B of equity, the balance sheet is a fortress. Quarterly run-rates remain resilient—$1.71B revenue and 61% net margin in the June 2026 quarter versus $1.69B and 61% a year earlier—while the trailing P/E of 23.6x and FCF yield of roughly 4.4% sit only a hair above the synthesis fair-value anchor of $260. At a 4.3% dividend yield and 97% payout, the stock is already returning essentially all earnings to owners, so the growth story is incremental volume and operating leverage rather than reinvestment.
What stands out is the durability of the margin structure: 86% gross, 65% operating, and sub-1% of revenue spent on capital. ROE of 14% and ROIC of 13% on a capital-light clearing and data franchise confirm the moat is real. Recent revenue acceleration (6.4% YoY) and modest net insider purchases reinforce that the business is still expanding even after years of elevated macro volatility. The market is therefore paying a full but not egregious multiple for a regulated utility that monetizes uncertainty itself.
The strongest counter-argument is that 23.6x earnings already embeds the high-volatility regime that has driven volumes, and any reversion to a low-vol environment would compress both growth and the multiple back toward the mid-teens historical range cited in the pre-flight note. Earnings CAGR of 12% looks attractive until one notices that almost all free cash is paid out, leaving little internal fuel for acceleration, while the anomalous EV/EBITDA reading and sub-3% ROA hint that the asset base supporting clearing is large and low-yielding. A smart skeptic would also flag early competitive pressure on fee capture and the risk that passive flows permanently reduce derivatives participation, turning the “steady compounder” narrative into a no-growth yield trap at today’s price.
I would flip to a clear undervalued stance if the next two quarters deliver double-digit revenue growth with margins holding above 60%, or if management announces a material crypto or international clearing win that lifts the forward growth algorithm above 10%. Conversely, two consecutive quarters of flat-to-down average daily volume accompanied by a payout cut or a 200 bp compression in net margin would push me firmly into overvalued territory.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
The business is a derivatives-exchange oligopolist showing textbook operating leverage: revenue $4.69B to $6.52B (2021 to 2025, ~8.6% CAGR), gross margin expanding from 82.2% to 86.1%, and operating margin climbing every single year from 56.4% to 64.9%. Net income grew from $2.64B to $4.07B and FCF from $2.28B to $4.19B, with OCF/NI at 1.04x and accruals at -0.1% of assets - the reported earnings are backed by cash. Diluted share count crept from 361.8M to 364.9M (0.2% CAGR) with SBC only 1.5% of revenue, so per-share value is fully protected.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Composition of the $4.54B cash vs restricted/segregated clearinghouse funds in the 10-K
- Customer/product concentration - share of revenue from interest-rate and equity-index complexes
- Any contingent liabilities or clearinghouse guaranty-fund exposures that Altman Z might be indirectly flagging
- Terms and vesting of the routine director/officer equity awards to confirm SBC discipline
- Debt maturity schedule and interest coverage detail behind the 'net cash = gross cash' figure
The composite fair value of $213.67 implies the stock is ~19% rich, but the signal-adjusted FV of $259.78 (which credits the quality/anchored-PE inputs) sits within 2% of the $263.66 tape. The anchored-PE read of $269.71 actually says slightly cheap, while the EPV floor of $116.05 is a no-growth worst case that shouldn't drive the decision for a monopoly compounder. Averaging the credible bookends (DCF $234 and anchored-PE $270) lands near $252, i.e. roughly 4-5% above deserved value - noise, not mispricing. Earnings quality is adequate/mixed with a zero haircut hint, so no deserved-value markdown is warranted, but no premium either. The market clearly understands this is a wide-moat exchange with 65% operating margins and clean FCF - that recognition is already in the multiple. To underwrite meaningful upside from here you need volumes and rates-complex activity to keep surprising up, or another leg of buybacks/special dividends; none of that is a discount, it's a hope. This is the textbook 'great business, full price' outcome.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward guidance on ADV (average daily volume) and rates-complex activity vs consensus
- Any change in clearing fee schedule or regulatory margin requirements
- Capital return cadence - special dividend size and buyback pace
- Non-transaction revenue (data, market services) growth rate - key to defending multiple
CME sits under a benign non-fundamental backdrop. The tape is risk-on with VIX at 14.9 and the S&P at highs, but with a beta of only 0.27 the market regime barely touches this name either way. The active narrative is a steady-compounder / quasi-utility story with minimal intensity and durable framing - it is not a cult stock, there is no mania to unwind and no crack in the plot. Cramer flagging the exchange duopoly favorably and coverage of new retail futures products reinforce the plumbing-of-global-risk story without creating euphoria.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- October FOMC outcome and its effect on rates-complex volumes
- Any crack in the exchange-duopoly narrative (new competitor, regulatory push on clearing margins)
- Sell-side target revisions after the 'stretched valuation' commentary
- Monthly ADV prints - the sentiment lever for this name
This lens hasn't been run for this ticker yet.
When we made this prediction on Aug 10, 2026, CME was $263.66. We expect it to be $270.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $220.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 10, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.