Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$27.93
6-month call
Bull +19.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$33.50
Great value below
$26.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.9% to $33.50
Predicted High
$33.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$28.10
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:56 am
Bull
BCS trends higher to
$33.50
(+19.9% from $27.93)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBCS trades well below composite fair value ($41.88) with quality/value support and a risk-on tape, but sentiment is mildly negative and UK rate-fear headlines cap enthusiasm. Expect gradual grind higher toward the deterministic baseline as value gravity works, with early chop before momentum builds.
Invalidated ifBreak below $26 on UK macro shock or a bank sector selloff, or failure to reclaim $29 by m2 signals value convergence is stalled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $27.93 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $27.93 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $25.99–$29.87 typical range · internal point $28.10 | — | ±7.0% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape provides mild near-term drift |
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $25.11–$30.75 typical range · internal point $28.35 | — | ±10.1% | 6/10 | Slow grind, no catalyst, sentiment neutral |
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $29.20 | — | +4.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $30.50 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Earnings window potential, beat streak supportive |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $31.75 | — | +13.7% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $32.80 | — | +17.4% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, undervaluation attracts flows |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $33.50 | — | +19.9% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline as thesis matures |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $33.76 (+20.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $27.93 |
| Composite fair value | $41.88 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $40.75 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $41.88 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $26.00 |
| Value net score | +35 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +37 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 38.2% 3m 34.9% 6m 36.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.56 3m 1.39 5m 1.66 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-BCS-20260810-004545-d920 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-BCS-20260810-004545-d920 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-BCS-20260810-004545-d920 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-BCS-20260810-004545-d920 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.