Made on
Aug 10, 2026
Price at call
$216.26
6-month call
Bear -10.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$194.00
Great value below
$130.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.3% to $194.00
Predicted High
$221.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$194.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 10, 2026 12:57 am
Bear
DASH trends lower to
$194.00
(-10.3% from $216.26)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisDASH trades far above every fair-value anchor, but risk-on tape and a durable platform-monopoly narrative keep momentum intact near-term. Value gravity asserts itself gradually over the six-month window, dragging the price toward the deterministic $194 endpoint without a full mean-reversion collapse absent a catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break above $235 on strong volume or a decisive close below $190 before m3 would falsify the gentle-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $216.26 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 10, 2026 | — | $216.26 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 24, 2026 | $194.84–$237.68 typical range · internal point $219.50 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry price modestly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $223.49 on Aug 21, 2026 = +3.3% vs the call (predicted +1.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.9 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±9.9%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 10, 2026 | $185.22–$247.30 typical range · internal point $221.00 | — | ±14.4% | 5/10 | Narrative strength persists, no earnings catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $197.25 on Sep 9, 2026 = -8.8% vs the call (predicted +2.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 11.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±14.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 10, 2026 | $215.00 | — | -0.6% | 4/10 | Momentum stalls as valuation stretch draws profit-taking |
| 3 months | Nov 10, 2026 | $208.00 | — | -3.8% | 4/10 | Q3 print risk and value gravity begin biting |
| 4 months | Dec 10, 2026 | $202.00 | — | -6.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning trims expensive high-beta names |
| 5 months | Jan 10, 2027 | $197.00 | — | -8.9% | 4/10 | January reset, valuation anchors pull toward baseline |
| 6 months | Feb 10, 2027 | $194.00 | — | -10.3% | 5/10 | Converges near deterministic endpoint, still above fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $193.83 (-10.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $216.26 |
| Composite fair value | $86.73 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $85.17 |
| DCF fair value | $91.97 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $100.19 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $130.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +54 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.0% 3m 49.7% 6m 50.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.13 3m 1.15 5m 1.28 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 17.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | DASH-20260810-000802-b753 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-DASH-20260810-004545-188f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-DASH-20260810-004545-188f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-DASH-20260810-004545-188f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | ext-DASH-20260810-004545-188f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | DASH-20260810-000802-b753 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 10, 2026 | freshest | DASH-20260810-000802-b753 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 10, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $216.26 | $194.00 | -10.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.