Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$158.71
6-month call
Bear -11.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$141.00
Great value below
$120.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.2% to $141.00
Predicted High
$158.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$141.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:19 am
Bear
EMR trends lower to
$141.00
(-11.2% from $158.71)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisEMR trades far above every fundamental anchor with a slightly negative sentiment overlay and weak 6-month momentum, so value gravity should gradually pull the stock lower over the horizon while a risk-on tape cushions the early weeks. No earnings catalyst in window means drift, not shock, dominates. Path decays toward the deterministic baseline near $141 by month six.
Invalidated ifA decisive breakout above $170 on volume, or a beat-and-raise pre-announcement, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $158.71 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $158.71 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $148.81–$168.61 typical range · internal point $158.20 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape holds price near current levels short term |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $144.37–$173.05 typical range · internal point $156.50 | — | ±9.0% | 5/10 | Mild drift as momentum stays negative, no catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $153.00 | — | -3.6% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins asserting against stretched multiple |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $149.50 | — | -5.8% | 4/10 | Continued fade toward anchored-PE zone around 135 |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $146.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, tax considerations pressure extended names |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $143.00 | — | -9.9% | 4/10 | January reset, fundamentals reassert versus rich valuation |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $141.00 | — | -11.2% | 4/10 | Converges to deterministic baseline near anchored-PE level |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $141.08 (-11.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $158.71 |
| Composite fair value | $65.45 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $61.06 |
| DCF fair value | $44.19 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $135.40 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $120.00 |
| Value net score | -69 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +43 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.8% 3m 31.3% 6m 35.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.13 3m 1.41 5m 1.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | EMR-20260811-000713-d708 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-EMR-20260811-010850-b6c0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-EMR-20260811-010850-b6c0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-EMR-20260811-010850-b6c0 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-EMR-20260811-010850-b6c0 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | EMR-20260811-000713-d708 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | EMR-20260811-000713-d708 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $158.71 | $141.00 | -11.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 13, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.