Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$362.71
6-month call
Bear -7.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$335.00
Great value below
$260.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.6% to $335.00
Predicted High
$364.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$335.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:20 am
Bear
SHW trends lower to
$335.00
(-7.6% from $362.71)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisSHW trades far above every fair-value anchor but momentum, quality, and a risk-on tape sustain the premium near term; over six months mild value gravity and prior-prediction bias pull the path modestly lower, though nothing like a full convergence.
Invalidated ifA break above $385 on volume or a hold above $370 through October invalidates the fade; conversely a break below $330 accelerates it.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $362.71 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $362.71 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $338.40–$387.02 typical range · internal point $364.50 | — | ±6.7% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape, no catalyst, drift slightly higher |
| What actually happened: closed $346.73 on Aug 24, 2026 = -4.4% vs the call (predicted +0.5%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.7%: inside the band · S&P -1.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $327.48–$397.94 typical range · internal point $361.00 | — | ±9.7% | 6/10 | Flat consolidation around current levels, low vol |
| What actually happened: closed $317.44 on Sep 10, 2026 = -12.5% vs the call (predicted -0.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 12.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±9.7%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P -1.8% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $355.00 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, valuation concerns weigh |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $348.00 | — | -4.1% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, premium slowly compresses |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $345.00 | — | -4.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, mild profit-taking on winner |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $340.00 | — | -6.3% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity reasserts modestly |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $335.00 | — | -7.6% | 3/10 | Drift toward deterministic baseline as sentiment cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $331.35 (-8.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $362.71 |
| Composite fair value | $175.23 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $195.03 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $234.31 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $260.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +67 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 41.8% 3m 33.6% 6m 31.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.34 3m 0.80 5m 1.02 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | SHW-20260811-000713-9639 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHW-20260811-010850-3683 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHW-20260811-010850-3683 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHW-20260811-010850-3683 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-SHW-20260811-010850-3683 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | SHW-20260811-000713-9639 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | SHW-20260811-000713-9639 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $362.71 | $335.00 | -7.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 13, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $333.99 | $300.61 | -10.0% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.