Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$91.43
6-month call
Bear -9.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$83.00
Great value below
$70.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.2% to $83.00
Predicted High
$92.10
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$83.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:21 am
Bear
MNST trends lower to
$83.00
(-9.2% from $91.43)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMNST trades far above any fair-value anchor but a risk-on tape, cult-brand sentiment, and consistent earnings beats keep the premium sticky in the near term. Over six months, gravity toward the low-$80s composite baseline reasserts modestly as multiple compression grinds, without a catalyst for a sharp break.
Invalidated ifA break above $98 on volume or a print-miss driving a close below $82 would falsify this drift-lower path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $91.43 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $91.43 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $54.45–$128.41 typical range · internal point $92.10 | — | ±40.4% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry near term |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $37.85–$145.01 typical range · internal point $91.20 | — | ±58.6% | 5/10 | Sentiment plateau, no catalyst either direction |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $89.50 | — | -2.1% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins nudging multiple lower |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $87.80 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print window; beat priced but reaction muted |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $86.20 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on extended cult names |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $84.50 | — | -7.6% | 4/10 | January rotation away from premium-multiple staples |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $83.00 | — | -9.2% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $83.70 (-8.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $91.43 |
| Composite fair value | $42.57 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $52.54 |
| DCF fair value | $42.29 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $62.81 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $70.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +84 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 350.7% 3m 203.0% 6m 145.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 12.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -6.80 3m -2.36 5m -0.72 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 10.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MNST-20260811-000713-8f5e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNST-20260811-010850-5e20 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNST-20260811-010850-5e20 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNST-20260811-010850-5e20 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-MNST-20260811-010850-5e20 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MNST-20260811-000713-8f5e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | MNST-20260811-000713-8f5e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $91.43 | $83.00 | -9.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 10, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $96.55 | $89.45 | -7.4% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.