Made on
Aug 11, 2026
Price at call
$294.52
6-month call
Bear -8.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$270.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-8.3% to $270.00
Predicted High
$295.80
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$270.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-8.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 11, 2026 1:21 am
Bear
ITW trends lower to
$270.00
(-8.3% from $294.52)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisITW is richly valued versus every fair-value anchor but the tape is risk-on, quality is high, and beta is low, so mean reversion is slow. Expect a mild drift lower over six months as multiple compression grinds against a durable narrative, not a violent repricing.
Invalidated ifA break above $310 on volume or a beat-and-raise catalyst would invalidate; conversely a break below $270 accelerates the path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $294.52 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 11, 2026 | — | $294.52 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 25, 2026 | $281.82–$307.22 typical range · internal point $295.80 | — | ±4.3% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and low beta keep drift minimal |
| 1 month | Sep 11, 2026 | $276.11–$312.93 typical range · internal point $293.00 | — | ±6.2% | 6/10 | No catalyst; narrative support offsets valuation drag |
| 2 months | Oct 11, 2026 | $288.50 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins as momentum fades |
| 3 months | Nov 11, 2026 | $283.00 | — | -3.9% | 5/10 | Q3 print risk; multiple compression edges in |
| 4 months | Dec 11, 2026 | $278.00 | — | -5.6% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims stretched industrials |
| 5 months | Jan 11, 2027 | $274.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | January reset favors cheaper cyclicals over ITW |
| 6 months | Feb 11, 2027 | $270.00 | — | -8.3% | 4/10 | Slow convergence toward anchored-PE fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $267.31 (-9.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $294.52 |
| Composite fair value | $138.65 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $131.47 |
| DCF fair value | $125.67 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $192.12 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -65 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +76 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 27.3% 3m 21.6% 6m 21.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.06 3m 0.40 5m 0.58 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ITW-20260811-000713-e8ba |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITW-20260811-010850-3235 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITW-20260811-010850-3235 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITW-20260811-010850-3235 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ext-ITW-20260811-010850-3235 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ITW-20260811-000713-e8ba |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 11, 2026 | freshest | ITW-20260811-000713-e8ba |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $294.52 | $270.00 | -8.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 13, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $268.81 | $266.38 | -0.9% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.