Made on
Aug 13, 2026
Price at call
$12.90
6-month call
Bull +50.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$19.40
Great value below
$16.50
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+50.4% to $19.40
Predicted High
$19.40
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$12.60
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 13, 2026 1:15 am
Bull
ODD trends higher to
$19.40
(+50.4% from $12.90)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisODD trades at $12.90 after a -57% six-month collapse against a risk-on tape, well below every value anchor including bear case ($13.79). Sentiment is deeply negative and newsless, so near-term drift may stay heavy or choppy, but with no earnings landmine and value gravity pulling toward $20-25, a base is likely to form and grind higher into year-end and Q1.
Invalidated ifA decisive break below $10.50 on volume, or failure to reclaim $14 by October, would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $12.90 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 13, 2026 | — | $12.90 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 27, 2026 | $10.09–$15.71 typical range · internal point $12.60 | — | ±21.8% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang and momentum keep tape heavy near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 13, 2026 | $8.82–$16.98 typical range · internal point $13.10 | — | ±31.6% | 5/10 | Basing action as sellers exhaust in newsless drift |
| 2 months | Oct 13, 2026 | $14.20 | — | +10.1% | 5/10 | Risk-on regime and deep-value bid begin working |
| 3 months | Nov 13, 2026 | $15.80 | — | +22.5% | 4/10 | Holiday retail read and possible earnings catalyst lift |
| 4 months | Dec 13, 2026 | $16.90 | — | +31.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward $16.50 attractive threshold engages |
| 5 months | Jan 13, 2027 | $18.20 | — | +41.1% | 3/10 | January reset, mean-reversion of fallen-angel narrative |
| 6 months | Feb 13, 2027 | $19.40 | — | +50.4% | 3/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline as fundamentals reassert |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $20.93 (+62.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $12.90 |
| Composite fair value | $37.41 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $41.10 |
| DCF fair value | $26.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $80.45 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $16.50 |
| Value net score | +34 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +57 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 89.0% 3m 109.5% 6m 134.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 6.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.18 3m 1.51 5m 1.15 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -57.5% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 10d behind | ODD-20260802-132328-45ee |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260813-010146-c552 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260813-010146-c552 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260813-010146-c552 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260813-010146-c552 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260813-001331-130f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260813-001331-130f |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $12.46 | $17.00 | +36.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 13, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $12.90 | $19.40 | +50.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.