Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$297.79
6-month call
Bear -7.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$276.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.3% to $276.00
Predicted High
$302.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$276.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 12:44 am
Bear
UNP trends lower to
$276.00
(-7.3% from $297.79)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisUNP is riding a risk-on tape with an active merger narrative and Q2 beat momentum, keeping it elevated near-term despite rich valuation. Over 6 months, value gravity and merger arb uncertainty gradually pull it back toward the mid-$270s, but sentiment support prevents a full mean-reversion to fair value.
Invalidated ifMerger deal collapse or a Q3 earnings miss driving break below $270; conversely, deal approval catalyst driving sustained move above $315.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $297.79 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $297.79 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $282.80–$312.78 typical range · internal point $300.50 | — | ±5.0% | 7/10 | Risk-on momentum and merger narrative sustain near-term bid |
| What actually happened: closed $307.67 on Aug 27, 2026 = +3.3% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.4 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±5.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $276.06–$319.52 typical range · internal point $302.00 | — | ±7.3% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent new catalysts |
| What actually happened: closed $284.40 on Sep 11, 2026 = -4.5% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.9 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±7.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $298.00 | — | +0.1% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings approach introduces positioning caution |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $293.00 | — | -1.6% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation grumbling weighs |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $285.00 | — | -4.3% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking, merger timeline uncertainty |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $280.00 | — | -6.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity intensifies as narrative cools |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $276.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Drift toward baseline as premium compresses |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $274.97 (-7.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $297.79 |
| Composite fair value | $184.69 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $183.30 |
| DCF fair value | $134.53 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $341.02 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -77 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +59 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.9% 3m 25.3% 6m 24.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.41 3m -0.22 5m 0.03 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | UNP-20260814-001024-290c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNP-20260814-003142-c63d |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNP-20260814-003142-c63d |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNP-20260814-003142-c63d |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | ext-UNP-20260814-003142-c63d |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | UNP-20260814-001024-290c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | UNP-20260814-001024-290c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $297.79 | $276.00 | -7.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 12, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $286.96 | $275.32 | -4.1% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.