Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$100.50
6-month call
Bull +17.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$118.00
Great value below
$82.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.4% to $118.00
Predicted High
$118.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$97.80
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:25 am
Bull
GDDY trends higher to
$118.00
(+17.4% from $100.50)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisGDDY sits well below composite fair value with quality intact, but a heavy sentiment overhang (post-earnings wound, AI-disruption narrative) and no near-term catalyst mean value gravity works only slowly. Expect early drift lower or sideways as sentiment dominates, then a gradual grind toward fair value as the risk-on tape and forward earnings pull it up.
Invalidated ifA close below $88 sustained, or failure to reclaim $105 by November, would signal sentiment has fully overwhelmed value gravity.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $100.50 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $100.50 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $87.48–$113.52 typical range · internal point $99.20 | — | ±13.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment press and AI overhang keep near-term drift soft |
| What actually happened: closed $96.98 on Aug 27, 2026 = -3.5% vs the call (predicted -1.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.2 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±13.0%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $81.64–$119.36 typical range · internal point $97.80 | — | ±18.8% | 5/10 | No catalyst; narrative wound still bleeding into tape |
| What actually happened: closed $98.07 on Sep 11, 2026 = -2.4% vs the call (predicted -2.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.3 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±18.8%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $99.50 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Stabilization as oversold value buyers begin nibbling |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $104.00 | — | +3.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches; beat history draws positioning |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $109.00 | — | +8.5% | 5/10 | Post-print relief plus risk-on regime lift |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $114.00 | — | +13.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value asserts |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $118.00 | — | +17.4% | 4/10 | Convergence toward anchor as narrative fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $120.80 (+20.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $100.50 |
| Composite fair value | $121.09 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $121.16 |
| DCF fair value | $161.34 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $92.13 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $82.00 |
| Value net score | +17 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +66 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 88.5% 3m 65.0% 6m 59.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.49 3m -0.25 5m -0.16 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 10.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 10d behind | GDDY-20260802-134302-a0c5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GDDY-20260812-135924-afe0 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GDDY-20260812-135924-afe0 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GDDY-20260812-135924-afe0 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | freshest | ext-GDDY-20260812-135924-afe0 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | GDDY-20260802-134302-a0c5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 13, 2026 | freshest | GDDY-20260802-134302-a0c5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.