Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$28.09
6-month call
Bull +17.5%
Target by Feb 2027
$33.00
Great value below
$24.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.5% to $33.00
Predicted High
$33.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$28.10
at 1 month
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:25 am
Bull
BCS trends higher to
$33.00
(+17.5% from $28.09)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisBarclays trades well below composite fair value ($40.87) with a risk-on tape and consistent earnings beats providing gradual lift. Path drifts higher toward the deterministic $33 baseline as value gravity works, but UK-bank macro drag and neutral sentiment cap the slope.
Invalidated ifBreak below $26 on UK macro shock or regime flip to risk-off would falsify the upward drift
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $28.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $28.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $26.18–$30.00 typical range · internal point $28.35 | — | ±6.8% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape supports mild drift near current level |
| What actually happened: closed $26.87 on Aug 27, 2026 = -4.3% vs the call (predicted +0.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±6.8%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $25.32–$30.86 typical range · internal point $28.10 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | Consolidation as UK bank sector digests macro |
| What actually happened: closed $26.70 on Sep 11, 2026 = -5.0% vs the call (predicted +0.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.0 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±9.9%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $29.20 | — | +4.0% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $30.40 | — | +8.2% | 5/10 | Earnings season lift on beat history |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $31.30 | — | +11.4% | 4/10 | Continued grind toward composite anchor |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $32.20 | — | +14.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors laggard financials |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $33.00 | — | +17.5% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $33.05 (+17.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $28.09 |
| Composite fair value | $40.87 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $43.44 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $40.87 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $24.00 |
| Value net score | +38 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +21 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.7% 3m 34.2% 6m 36.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.52 3m 1.37 5m 1.58 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 7.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 10, 2026 | 4d behind | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-BCS-20260812-132540-cd7e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-BCS-20260812-132540-cd7e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-BCS-20260812-132540-cd7e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-BCS-20260812-132540-cd7e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | BCS-20260810-000802-1fc2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.