Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$93.30
6-month call
Bull +16.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$108.50
Great value below
$82.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.3% to $108.50
Predicted High
$108.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$90.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:26 am
Bull
DECK trends higher to
$108.50
(+16.3% from $93.30)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisDECK trades below composite fair value with strong quality but is being pressed by sector-wide footwear de-rating and negative sentiment following ON Holdings' blowup. Near-term drift stays weak as the sector wound heals, then value gravity and a beat-heavy earnings history pull price toward the deterministic baseline over months 3-6.
Invalidated ifA break below $82 confirms bear scenario; a sustained move above $115 without earnings catalyst invalidates the slow-grind recovery.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $93.30 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $93.30 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $85.87–$100.73 typical range · internal point $91.50 | — | ±8.0% | 7/10 | Sector overhang and negative sentiment persist near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $82.53–$104.07 typical range · internal point $90.00 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Footwear de-rating drags, no catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $93.00 | — | -0.3% | 5/10 | Stabilization near value-attractive zone below 82 avoided |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $98.00 | — | +5.0% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, quality lens reasserts |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $103.00 | — | +10.4% | 5/10 | Earnings beat streak supports mean reversion higher |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $106.00 | — | +13.6% | 4/10 | Value gravity toward composite fair value 111 |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $108.50 | — | +16.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $103.88 (+11.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $93.30 |
| Composite fair value | $111.22 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $126.43 |
| DCF fair value | $101.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $174.35 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $82.00 |
| Value net score | +23 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +79 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 42.4% 3m 40.0% 6m 38.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.72 3m 0.86 5m 1.26 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 14d behind | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-DECK-20260812-113803-e385 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-DECK-20260812-113803-e385 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-DECK-20260812-113803-e385 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-DECK-20260812-113803-e385 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260813-001231-1960 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | DECK-20260730-185733-1615 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.