Made on
Aug 14, 2026
Price at call
$60.59
6-month call
Bull +17.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$71.00
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+17.2% to $71.00
Predicted High
$71.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$61.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 14, 2026 3:26 am
Bull
PYPL trends higher to
$71.00
(+17.2% from $60.59)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisPYPL trades below composite fair value of $75 with strong recent momentum (up 49.8% over 6mo) and a risk-on regime. Value gravity should pull it toward $70s over months, though near-term consolidation is likely after the sharp run. Baseline endpoint of $67.76 seems reasonable; I lean slightly higher given momentum plus consistent earnings beats.
Invalidated ifBreak below $52 attractive-value line or regime flip to risk-off with momentum reversal
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $60.59 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 14, 2026 | — | $60.59 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 28, 2026 | $55.56–$65.62 typical range · internal point $61.20 | — | ±8.3% | 6/10 | Consolidation after strong run, risk-on regime supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $61.47 on Aug 27, 2026 = +1.5% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±8.3%: inside the band · S&P -0.7% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 14, 2026 | $53.30–$67.88 typical range · internal point $62.50 | — | ±12.0% | 5/10 | Drift higher on momentum, no catalyst yet |
| What actually happened: closed $53.72 on Sep 11, 2026 = -11.3% vs the call (predicted +3.2%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 14.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.0%: inside the band · S&P -1.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 14, 2026 | $64.80 | — | +6.9% | 5/10 | Q3 earnings anticipation, beat streak supports bid |
| 3 months | Nov 14, 2026 | $67.50 | — | +11.4% | 5/10 | Earnings beat likely extends, value gap closing |
| 4 months | Dec 14, 2026 | $69.00 | — | +13.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning toward fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 14, 2027 | $70.50 | — | +16.4% | 4/10 | January continuation, value convergence |
| 6 months | Feb 14, 2027 | $71.00 | — | +17.2% | 3/10 | Approaching composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $67.76 (+11.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $60.59 |
| Composite fair value | $75.36 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $77.53 |
| DCF fair value | $76.23 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $99.81 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | +28 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 22.9% 3m 41.7% 6m 39.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.11 3m 0.74 5m 0.74 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 49.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 14d behind | PYPL-20260730-170255-6d48 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-PYPL-20260812-113742-6d64 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-PYPL-20260812-113742-6d64 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-PYPL-20260812-113742-6d64 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 12, 2026 | 1d behind | ext-PYPL-20260812-113742-6d64 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | PYPL-20260813-001131-3b67 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 14, 2026 | freshest | PYPL-20260813-001131-3b67 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.