Made on
Aug 15, 2026
Price at call
$94.99
6-month call
Bull +16.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$110.50
Great value below
$80.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.3% to $110.50
Predicted High
$110.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$96.20
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 15, 2026 12:41 am
Bull
OKE trends higher to
$110.50
(+16.3% from $94.99)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisOKE has real value-gap upside ($186 fair vs $95), a risk-on tape, and an AI-data-center demand narrative that supports near-term drift higher. But value convergence in midstream is slow, negative beta means it lags a hot tape, and quality/value composite scores are weak - so I expect gradual grind toward the deterministic ~$111 endpoint, not a full re-rate.
Invalidated ifBreak below $88 support or loss of risk-on regime; conversely a decisive close above $105 accelerates the path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $94.99 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 15, 2026 | — | $94.99 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 29, 2026 | $89.32–$100.66 typical range · internal point $96.20 | — | ±6.0% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and AI-datacenter hook sustain drift |
| 1 month | Sep 15, 2026 | $86.77–$103.21 typical range · internal point $98.10 | — | ±8.7% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind continues, no earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Oct 15, 2026 | $100.75 | — | +6.1% | 5/10 | Value gap begins to attract slow-money bid |
| 3 months | Nov 15, 2026 | $103.50 | — | +9.0% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely, EPS beat history supportive |
| 4 months | Dec 15, 2026 | $106.00 | — | +11.6% | 4/10 | Year-end midstream yield chase into distributions |
| 5 months | Jan 15, 2027 | $108.25 | — | +14.0% | 4/10 | Value convergence continues, negative beta caps upside |
| 6 months | Feb 15, 2027 | $110.50 | — | +16.3% | 3/10 | Approaches deterministic endpoint, momentum fades |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $111.14 (+17.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $94.99 |
| Composite fair value | $186.00 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $183.13 |
| DCF fair value | $209.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $253.92 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $80.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 5 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -11 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.2% 3m 30.0% 6m 29.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.76 3m -0.81 5m -0.81 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 12.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | OKE-20260815-001424-63fa |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKE-20260815-003050-c92e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKE-20260815-003050-c92e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKE-20260815-003050-c92e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | ext-OKE-20260815-003050-c92e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 15, 2026 | freshest | OKE-20260815-001424-63fa |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $94.99 | $110.50 | +16.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 19, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.