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What this page is: Delvantic's full research page for ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) — AI-driven forensic equity research: mechanical valuation models (DCF, EPV, anchored-PE, scenario) plus three independent AI lenses (Quality / Value / Sentiment). Everything below is rendered server-side; you are not missing content that requires JavaScript. All scores are predictions and research opinions, not financial advice.
Our current read (analysis of 2026-08-23): Designation Low · Gem Score -29 (−100…+100 Quality+Value blend) · Quality -11 · Value -43 · Sentiment 26 (timing only, not weighted) · Composite fair value $186.79 vs $94.99 at analysis
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profile-header/price-overview— company profile, live quote, market capextended-analysis— the core: three AI lens reads with findings, scores, and the analyst memofuture-predictions— our forward price-band predictionsmarket-narrative/ai-findings/gpt-critique— narrative context, cross-model findings, and an adversarial critique of our own analysis (near the end of the document)- Members-only sections (render as login gates for anonymous readers):
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ONEOK, Inc.
OKE NYSEONEOK, Inc. is a U.S. midstream energy infrastructure company that owns and operates a large network of pipelines and related assets across key oil and gas regions. The company’s primary role is to provide gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation, storage, and marine export services for natural gas, natural gas liquids, refined products, and crude oil. Through its extensive pipeline and terminal system, ONEOK connects upstream producers with downstream utilities, refiners, petrochemical plants, and industrial customers, facilitating reliable movement of hydrocarbons from the Mid-Continent, Permian Basin, North Texas, Gulf Coast, and Rocky Mountain regions to major demand centers. Its operations are organized into distinct segments covering natural gas gathering and processing, natural gas liquids, natural gas pipelines, and refined products and crude, giving it a diversified presence across the midstream value chain. Founded in 1906 and headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, ONEOK today plays a significant role in supporting energy supply chains and meeting domestic and international demand for natural gas and related products.
Price Overview
Price History (1 Year)
Revenue & Net Income Trend
| Period | Revenue | Net Income | Net Margin | YoY/QoQ |
|---|
Key Metrics
EPS (Diluted): 5.42
Total Equity: $22.57B
Shares: 625,900,000
Total Debt: $32.00B
Cash: $78.00M
EBITDA: $7.26B
Total Debt: $32.00B
Cash: $78.00M
Revenue: $33.63B
Revenue: $33.63B
Revenue: $33.63B
Total Equity: $22.57B
Tax Rate: 22.9%
Equity: $22.57B
Total Debt: $32.00B
Cash: $78.00M
Current Liabilities: $6.37B
Long-Term Debt: $30.76B
Total Debt: $32.00B
Total Equity: $22.57B
Shares: 625,900,000
Shares: 625,900,000
CapEx: -$3.15B
Shares: 625,900,000
Stock Price: $94.99
Net Income: $3.39B
Industry Benchmarks
Income Statement (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 11:50am (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $16.5B | $22.4B | $17.7B | $21.7B | $33.6B |
| Cost of Revenue | $12.3B | $17.9B | $11.9B | $13.3B | $23.4B |
| Gross Profit | $4.3B | $4.5B | $5.7B | $8.4B | $10.3B |
| Operating Expenses | $1.7B | $1.7B | $1.7B | $3.4B | $4.5B |
| Operating Income | $2.6B | $2.8B | $4.1B | $5.0B | $5.7B |
| Net Income | — | $1.7B | $2.7B | $3.0B | $3.4B |
| EBITDA | $3.2B | $3.4B | $4.8B | $6.1B | $7.3B |
| EPS | $3.36 | $3.85 | $5.49 | $5.19 | $5.43 |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.35 | $3.84 | $5.48 | $5.17 | $5.42 |
Balance Sheet (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:50pm (12d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | $146.4M | $220.2M | $338.0M | $733.0M | $78.0M |
| Total Current Assets | $2.4B | $2.5B | $3.1B | $4.2B | $4.5B |
| Total Assets | $23.6B | $24.4B | $44.3B | $64.1B | $66.6B |
| Current Liabilities | $3.2B | $3.1B | $3.5B | $4.7B | $6.4B |
| Long-Term Debt | $12.7B | $12.7B | $21.2B | $31.0B | $30.8B |
| Total Liabilities | $17.6B | $17.9B | $27.8B | $41.9B | $44.1B |
| Total Equity | $6.0B | $6.5B | $16.5B | $22.1B | $22.6B |
| Retained Earnings | $0 | $50.4M | $868.0M | $1.6B | $2.4B |
Cash Flow (Annual)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 11:50am (10d ago)| Metric | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $2.5B | $2.9B | $4.4B | $4.9B | $5.6B |
| Capital Expenditure | -$696.9M | -$1.2B | -$1.6B | -$2.0B | -$3.2B |
| Free Cash Flow | $1.8B | $1.7B | $2.8B | $2.9B | $2.4B |
| Acquisitions (net) | $0 | $0 | -$5.0B | -$5.8B | -$25.0M |
| Net Debt Issued / (Repaid) | -$604.9M | -$26.4M | $4.0B | $5.1B | $10.0M |
| Dividends Paid | -$1.7B | -$1.7B | -$1.8B | -$2.3B | -$2.6B |
| Stock Buybacks | — | $0 | $0 | -$159.0M | -$75.0M |
| Net Change in Cash | -$378.1M | $73.8M | $118.0M | $395.0M | -$655.0M |
Growth Trends (YoY %)
Last updated: Aug 13, 2026 11:50am (10d ago)| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth | +35.4% | -21.0% | +22.7% | +55.0% |
| Gross Profit Growth | +4.5% | +28.4% | +45.9% | +22.3% |
| Operating Income Growth | +8.1% | +45.0% | +22.5% | +15.1% |
| Net Income Growth | — | +54.4% | +14.1% | +11.8% |
| EBITDA Growth | +6.7% | +41.0% | +26.5% | +18.5% |
Dividend History (Last 20)
Last updated: Aug 11, 2026 12:50pm (12d ago)| Date | Dividend | Declaration | Record | Payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-02 | $1.07 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-03 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-01 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025-05-05 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2025-02-03 | $1.03 | — | — | — |
| 2024-11-01 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-08-01 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-30 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-29 | $0.99 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-31 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2023-07-31 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2023-04-28 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2023-01-27 | $0.96 | — | — | — |
| 2022-10-31 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-07-29 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-04-29 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2022-01-28 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
| 2021-10-29 | $0.94 | — | — | — |
Deep Analysis
Narrative Economics
market-narrative step).
AI Lens 4th lens · how AI reaches this business · 5-yr
2026-08-15AI datacenter load growth raises gas-fired power demand, which lifts residue gas value, storage optionality and G&P economics in OKE's Mid-Continent, Permian and Bakken footprint; AI-driven upstream drilling efficiency also sustains wellhead volumes into existing gathering systems without OKE spending capex.
OKE's earnings center on NGLs, fractionation and export — an ethane/propane petrochemical chain that gets no direct benefit from AI power demand, and where volumes still hinge on oil-directed drilling and global petchem cycles that cheap intelligence does not fix.
Whether AI-era power demand converts into contracted revenue on OKE's specific assets — new gas transport/storage contracts, higher Oklahoma/Texas intrastate rates, power-gen interconnects — or accrues to interstate long-haul peers while OKE only sees indirect volume support.
Rights-of-way, PHMSA/FERC-permitted routes, Mont Belvieu fractionation capacity, marine export docks and an integrated wellhead-to-water NGL chain — none of which cheap software shortens by a single permitting cycle.
AI Lens thesis
ONEOK is an information-light, asset-heavy business: the monetized unit is throughput volume across steel, and no amount of machine intelligence substitutes for gathering, fractionating or exporting hydrocarbons. AI therefore arrives through three channels — (1) demand: AI compute drives electricity load, gas-fired generation and grid-balancing storage value, which supports gas volumes and basis optionality; (2) supply: AI-improved subsurface modeling and drilling efficiency keeps producer volumes flowing into OKE's connected acreage at lower producer breakevens, extending basin life; (3) internal opex: predictive maintenance, leak/integrity analytics, compressor and fractionator optimization, and automated commercial scheduling shave a few points off a cost base that is dominated by depreciation, purchased product and fuel, so margin conversion is real but small. Meanwhile entrant risk is near zero — the barrier is permits and land, not code. The honest read: low-to-moderate exposure, tilted positive, with the size of the positive depending on how much of the AI power-demand trade lands on OKE's gas assets versus its NGL core.
What the market may be underestimating
Upside Storage and intrastate flexibility become scarcer as AI-driven load makes gas burn spikier and less predictable — swing capacity that was a low-value legacy asset can reprice sharply on volatility, not just volume.
Downside AI-accelerated upstream productivity can drive faster field decline and fewer new wells per unit of output, meaning producers hit targets with less drilling — flat or falling gathering volumes even in a healthy price environment, quietly eroding G&P fee streams.
Outcome range spread 32
Growth Outlook
Analyzed 2026-08-17 16:21The question every valuation on this page silently assumes: is this company likely to grow? Judged forward — the business, its category, the world — against what's already printed.
Claude Reading
The raw numbers tell a story the models are partially missing. Revenue jumped from $5.0B in Q3 2024 to $12.1B in Q2 2026 — a 140% two-year expansion that is not organic; this is the Magellan and EnLink/Medallion acquisitions layering in. That's why the "revenue CAGR 37.9%" and "recent YoY 55%" numbers are essentially meaningless as growth signals — they're M&A accounting, not underlying demand. More telling: net margins compressed from 13.8% in Q3 2024 to 8% in the last two quarters, and Q1 2026 net income of $774M is actually *below* Q4 2024's $923M despite revenue nearly doubling. That's dilution, not compounding. Operating CF of $5.6B against $3.15B capex leaves $2.45B FCF, but the dividend at 4.46% yield on $60B cap is roughly $2.7B — the payout is already exceeding FCF, funded by the balance sheet.
The synthesis verdict of $183 fair value versus $94.99 (a claimed 93% upside) is the single most suspicious output in this file, and I dissent hard. A midstream with $32B debt, $78M cash, 1.42x D/E, current ratio 0.71, and 8% ROIC does not trade at a 48% discount to fair value in a market that has spent two years bidding up every yield-bearing infrastructure name. EV/EBITDA of 12.7x is already at the high end of the midstream 10-13x historical band; ENB, WMB, KMI, EPD all cluster 10-14x. A DCF spitting out $183 is almost certainly using a discount rate below 7% and assuming the acquired assets deliver synergies that haven't shown up in margins yet. The pre-flight note flagging P/E 17.5x as premium to the 12-15x midstream norm is directionally correct and directly contradicts the synthesis composite. Trust the multiples, not the DCF.
The contrarian bull case that survives scrutiny is narrower: OKE has $2.45B FCF, a covered-ish 4.46% yield, NGL export leverage into a genuinely tight Gulf Coast market, and management with a credible deleveraging path if they hit the $1B synergy target from Magellan. If integration lands and 2027 EBITDA reaches ~$8.5B run-rate, EV/EBITDA compresses to ~10x at today's price — that's cheap for the quality. The contrarian bear case is equally real: interest coverage is thinning (op income $5.74B against implied interest expense north of $1.5B and rising as debt refinances at 6%+), the payout ratio is 76% of GAAP earnings but effectively >100% of FCF, and the margin compression from 13% to 8% is not a one-quarter blip — it's four consecutive quarters. The market forces model flagging "leveraged bet on flawless M&A integration" is the most honest read in the file.
My verdict: fairly valued to slightly rich at $95, nowhere near the $183 composite. Fair value band is $85-$100 based on 11-12x forward EV/EBITDA and a 5% yield anchor. The archetype call of "mature earner / dividend-income" is right, and for that archetype the appropriate framing is total return of ~4.5% yield + 3-4% distribution growth = 7-8% expected return, which is fine but not compelling versus a 4.3% 10-year Treasury. I'd own it for income at $85 or below where yield crosses 5% and margin of safety appears; I would not chase here on a DCF that's clearly overweighting terminal growth assumptions in a business facing legitimate energy transition tail risk on a 15-20 year horizon (the narrative layer flagged this correctly). The decelerating quarterly revenue confidence and negative FCF CAGR are the tells that this isn't a compounder story — it's a yield story with integration risk.
GPT Reading
The first thing that jumps out is that the headline growth is much less impressive than the revenue line suggests. Revenue went from $21.7B in 2024 to $33.6B in 2025, and the latest two quarters are even bigger at $9.62B and $12.05B, but earnings have not scaled proportionally: net income rose only from $3.04B to $3.39B in 2025, and quarterly net margins have slid from 13.8% in 2024-09 and 13.2% in 2024-12 down to 10.7%-10.9% through most of 2025 and just 8% in the first half of 2026. That is not the profile of a hidden compounding machine; it is the profile of a bigger, lower-margin enterprise. For a midstream name, I care much more about the cash conversion and stability of the margin structure than about top-line expansion, and here free cash flow of $2.45B on a nearly $60B market cap is only about a 4.1% FCF yield. Pair that with a 4.46% dividend yield and a 76% payout ratio, and equity holders are not being paid much for the leverage they are underwriting.
The balance sheet is the second issue. ONEOK ended 2025 with $32.0B of debt against just $78M of cash and $22.6B of equity; debt-to-equity at 1.42x is not catastrophic for infrastructure, but it is absolutely material when the valuation already assumes quality. On 2025 operating income of $5.74B and operating cash flow of $5.60B, the company can service the stack, but there is not a lot of room for a sustained operational stumble if these 8% net margins are the new normal rather than a temporary dip. The current ratio of 0.71 reinforces the point: this is a long-duration asset business that has to keep capital markets open to it. That is why the 12.7x EV/EBITDA multiple matters. You can justify that for a best-in-class, visibly de-risking midstream operator with widening cash margins; it is harder to justify when FCF has a negative CAGR, margins are compressing, and the company is still carrying very substantial absolute debt.
That is also why I do not buy the wildly bullish composite valuation output. A stock on 17.5x earnings, 2.63x book, 1.77x sales, and roughly a 4% FCF yield does not scream “92% upside” unless the model is overcapitalizing revenue growth and underweighting margin degradation and leverage. The business is clearly better than a commodity E&P, but the numbers do not support calling it cheap in absolute terms. On annualized 2026 first-half earnings, ONEOK is running around $3.48B of net income, so the current market cap implies about 17x forward-ish earnings even after the business has already scaled meaningfully. That feels like a full price for a company whose recent growth has come with lower profitability. My read is that the stock deserves to trade more like a premium income vehicle than a growth story, and premium income vehicles should offer either a cleaner balance sheet or a higher yield than this.
The strongest case against my skepticism is straightforward: absolute earnings and operating cash flow keep rising, not falling. Net income has gone from $1.72B in 2022 to $2.66B in 2023 to $3.04B in 2024 to $3.39B in 2025, while operating income nearly doubled from $2.81B in 2022 to $5.74B in 2025. If 2026 quarterly net income of $774M and $966M is the base, then annual earnings power is still moving up despite lower percentage margins, which may simply reflect mix rather than economic deterioration. In that framing, 17.5x earnings for a hard-asset operator with a 4.5% yield is not expensive at all, especially if capex moderates after the current investment cycle and more of that $5.6B operating cash flow drops into free cash flow. A bull would also argue that revenue volatility is a poor lens for midstream economics and that the margin compression I am focused on may not map cleanly to distributable cash generation.
What would change my mind is evidence that the larger revenue base can produce sustainably better cash returns to equity. If the next few quarters show net margins recovering back above 10% while operating cash flow annualizes comfortably above $6B and free cash flow moves toward $3B-$3.5B without leverage rising further, then today’s multiple would look more justified and I would get materially more constructive. Conversely, if the 8% margin range persists, FCF remains stuck near the dividend burden, or debt increases from the current $32B while the stock still commands a high-teens P/E, then the market is overpaying for stability that is weaker than advertised. At $94.99, I think ONEOK is priced as a high-quality, low-risk compounder; the raw numbers say it is a decent but leveraged income stock with some integration/growth execution still to prove.
Grok Reading
The numbers tell a story of acquisition-fueled top-line inflation masking deteriorating cash economics. ONEOK’s revenue leapt from $21.70B in 2024 to $33.63B in 2025, and the trailing quarters keep printing bigger figures—$9.62B then $12.05B—with a 55% recent revenue YoY and a 37.9% revenue CAGR. That is not organic midstream volume growth; it is deal math. Net income only rose from $3.04B to $3.39B over the same annual span, an 11.5% lift that lags the revenue surge badly. Quarterly net margins have compressed from the 13% range in late 2024 into 8% in the two most recent prints. Free cash flow for 2025 was $2.45B against $5.60B of operating cash flow and $3.15B of capex, and the FCF CAGR is already negative at –7%. At a $59.88B equity value you are paying roughly 24× that FCF while the company carries $32.00B of debt against $78M of cash and a current ratio of 0.71. ROIC of 8.1% barely clears a reasonable midstream cost of capital. The 17.5× P/E and 12.7× EV/EBITDA are full for a mature toll-road whose incremental dollars are coming in at thinner margins and whose free-cash generation is shrinking.
The dividend is the only clean support: 4.46% yield on a 76% payout, funded by still-positive FCF of $2.45B. That makes OKE a workable income vehicle, not a growth compounder and not a deep-value re-rating candidate. The valuation synthesis that spits out ~$183 fair value (+93% upside) is internally contradicted by its own flags—high debt risk, mixed methods, and the market already pricing less growth than the models assume. I discard that composite. A business levered at 1.42× debt-to-equity, burning cash relative to its own history, and integrating large midstream M&A does not deserve a premium multiple to the historical 12–15× midstream band. At $94.99 the stock is priced as if the revenue step-up will eventually drop through to durable FCF expansion; the last six quarters of margin and FCF evidence say that handoff has not started.
The strongest counter-case is straightforward. Bulls will cite the contracted NGL and natural-gas infrastructure franchise, visible export-demand pull, and the fact that absolute earnings are still rising (earnings CAGR 13%, recent earnings YoY +11.8%). They will note ROE of 15%, gross margin still 30.5%, and operating margin of 17%, and argue that post-integration synergies plus tariff escalators will restore FCF growth and justify re-rating toward the DCF. The narrative layer’s “fortress midstream / 48% discount is panic” story is the soft version of the same argument. I weigh it less because FCF is the binding constraint for a 76%-payout dividend name with $32B of refinancing exposure; revenue without FCF conversion is decorative. Macro headwinds and a decelerating quarterly revenue trend already show up in the secondary signals, and interest coverage risk is flagged even by the optimistic model stack.
I would flip toward undervalued if the next two reported quarters show net margins back above 11% and trailing-twelve-month FCF above $3.2B while net debt begins a clear decline below $28B. A sustained organic volume beat tied to NGL export utilization, rather than another large acquisition, would also matter. Until those print, the 4.5% yield is fair compensation for leverage and transition risk, not a bargain.
Big-3 Panel — where each AI stands
Advanced Analysis Forensic deep-dive · separate lenses
ONEOK is a mature midstream earner throwing off real cash: FCF of $2.45B in 2025, OCF/NI of 1.65x, accruals of -3.8% of assets, and a Beneish M of -2.19 all point to clean, cash-backed earnings. Revenue scaled from $16.5B (2021) to $33.6B (2025), with net income rising from $1.72B to $3.39B and gross margin expanding from ~26% to ~30-38% across the window. FCF quality is genuinely strong for the asset class.
Verify before trusting this (5)
- Debt maturity ladder and weighted-average cost - is the $1.24B short-term stack refinanceable at reasonable rates?
- How much of the 8.8% share CAGR came from EnLink/Magellan/Medallion deal consideration vs SBC vs ATM issuance?
- Cause of 2025 OpM drop from 23% to 17.1% - mix shift, integration, or commodity pass-through?
- Distribution/dividend coverage from FCF net of growth capex - is the payout truly self-funded?
- Contract structure: fee-based vs commodity-exposed volume split, and customer concentration in the Bakken and Permian.
The e2e composite fair value of $186 (signal-adj $183) implies 93% upside, but that number is being pulled up by an anchored-PE of $254 and a DCF of $209 that both look heroic for a leveraged midstream with a 40% share count increase in four years. The EPV floor at $71 is the more honest bookend - it says the run-rate cash earnings alone do not justify today's price. Splitting the difference between a defensible DCF haircut (say $110-120 for a quality pipeline network with contracted cash flows) and the EPV floor puts deserved value in the $95-115 zone, roughly in line with or modestly above the $94.99 price.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Forward capex and expected share issuance in latest guidance - continued dilution meaningfully lowers per-share deserved value
- Contract duration and re-contracting risk in NGL and gas gathering segments
- Deleveraging path: net debt/EBITDA trajectory and any commentary on buybacks vs issuance
- One-time integration costs from recent M&A that may be flattering or depressing run-rate EBITDA
The macro tape is mildly risk-on (VIX 14.3, S&P near highs) and OKE's low 0.72 beta means it neither benefits much from euphoria nor gets punished in mild wobbles - so the tape is a soft positive, not decisive. What matters more is a narrative shift in progress: the August 14 headline tying OKE to AI data center power demand injects a growth-story overlay onto what has been a steady-compounder archetype. That is exactly the kind of story hook that can pull midstream names out of the 'energy transition loser' bucket and into the 'AI power beneficiary' bucket, which is one of the hottest narratives in this tape. Analyst tone is moderately bullish and the stock has outperformed, with 55% recent vs 37.9% long-term CAGR confirming the tape is already leaning its way. The offsetting pressure is the secular energy-transition bear narrative and higher rates (10y 4.63%) which weigh on yield-sensitive midstream. Net: the forces pushing up (AI-power story emerging, risk-on tape, bullish analyst tone, positive momentum) outweigh the slow-drip headwinds (transition narrative, rate pressure on yield names). Not a mania - a genuine, moderate tailwind.
Verify before trusting this (4)
- Whether more AI-data-center or LNG-export contract announcements follow, extending the growth-narrative graft
- Any analyst target-price revisions in coming weeks that either confirm or fade the AI-power thesis
- VIX regime break above 20 or a curve steepening move that would test how much the risk-on tailwind is actually doing
- Sector rotation flows - if energy midstream ETFs see inflows on the AI-power theme, that confirms the narrative is real
ONEOK is an information-light, asset-heavy business: the monetized unit is throughput volume across steel, and no amount of machine intelligence substitutes for gathering, fractionating or exporting hydrocarbons. AI therefore arrives through three channels — (1) demand: AI compute drives electricity load, gas-fired generation and grid-balancing storage value, which supports gas volumes and basis optionality; (2) supply: AI-improved subsurface modeling and drilling efficiency keeps producer volumes flowing into OKE's connected acreage at lower producer breakevens, extending basin life; (3) internal opex: predictive maintenance, leak/integrity analytics, compressor and fractionator optimization, and automated commercial scheduling shave a few points off a cost base that is dominated by depreciation, purchased product and fuel, so margin conversion is real but small. Meanwhile entrant risk is near zero — the barrier is permits and land, not code. The honest read: low-to-moderate exposure, tilted positive, with the size of the positive depending on how much of the AI power-demand trade lands on OKE's gas assets versus its NGL core.
None surfaced.
Verify before trusting this (8)
- New pipeline permitting timelines
- Mont Belvieu frac capacity additions
- Data-center gas interconnect requests
- Rail/truck substitution share
- New competing pipeline FIDs
- Basin takeaway capacity utilization
- Fee-based EBITDA percentage
- Contract tenor at renewal
The world is asking midstream to move more molecules, not fewer, over the next 2-3 years: US associated gas keeps growing with Permian oil, power-burn and data-center load are lifting domestic gas demand, and international LPG/ethane buyers are pulling record NGL exports. That backdrop favors owners of integrated wellhead-to-water systems — ONEOK's exact shape. The offsets are cyclical, not secular for this window: soft crude restrains Bakken drilling, and higher long rates raise the bar on capex-funded growth. The energy-transition bear case bites a decade out, well beyond the contracted horizon that determines the next three years of earnings power.
When we made this prediction on Aug 15, 2026, OKE was $94.99. We expect it to be $110.50 by Feb 2027, and we consider it great value under $80.00. This is an early model (v0.6.0) — the direction is more reliable than the exact price. Made Aug 15, 2026.
Blue is our prediction, starting the day we made it. Grey is a slower route to the same place — the same destination, taking longer. Black is the actual price, so you can see how we are doing.