Made on
Aug 16, 2026
Price at call
$235.17
6-month call
Bull +12.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$265.00
Great value below
$195.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+12.7% to $265.00
Predicted High
$265.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$238.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 16, 2026 12:32 am
Bull
CAH trends higher to
$265.00
(+12.7% from $235.17)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisCAH is a low-beta compounder quietly making highs on consistent EPS beats, with a risk-on tape and fair-value composite near spot. Momentum plus 5-of-5 beat cadence supports a drift higher toward the signal-adjusted $290 anchor over 6 months, though value gravity from the anchored-PE at $188 caps the pace.
Invalidated ifA close below $215 (breaking recent breakout) or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the drift-higher path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $235.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 16, 2026 | — | $235.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 30, 2026 | $224.56–$245.78 typical range · internal point $238.50 | — | ±4.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape extend record-high drift |
| 1 month | Sep 16, 2026 | $219.80–$250.54 typical range · internal point $242.00 | — | ±6.5% | 6/10 | Low-beta compounder continues quiet grind higher |
| 2 months | Oct 16, 2026 | $248.00 | — | +5.5% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, healthcare defensives bid |
| 3 months | Nov 16, 2026 | $255.00 | — | +8.4% | 5/10 | Likely Q1 beat extends 5-of-5 streak |
| 4 months | Dec 16, 2026 | $258.00 | — | +9.7% | 4/10 | Year-end consolidation near composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 16, 2027 | $262.00 | — | +11.4% | 4/10 | January drift toward signal-adjusted anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 16, 2027 | $265.00 | — | +12.7% | 3/10 | Convergence toward baseline endpoint, value gravity slows |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $261.97 (+11.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $235.17 |
| Composite fair value | $238.62 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $289.97 |
| DCF fair value | $332.49 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $188.06 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $195.00 |
| Value net score | -33 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +49 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.4% 3m 22.6% 6m 24.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.17 3m -0.13 5m -0.01 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 9.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | CAH-20260816-000829-3d0b |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAH-20260816-002430-ec88 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAH-20260816-002430-ec88 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | ext-CAH-20260816-002430-ec88 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 16, 2026 | freshest | CAH-20260816-000829-3d0b |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $235.17 | $265.00 | +12.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 20, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.