Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$37.55
6-month call
Bull +11.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$42.00
Great value below
$36.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+11.9% to $42.00
Predicted High
$42.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$37.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:07 am
Bull
KBR trends higher to
$42.00
(+11.9% from $37.55)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisKBR trades at a meaningful discount to fair value with steady earnings beats and a fresh defense win, but low beta and muted sentiment mean convergence is gradual. Expect a modest early lift on the defense catalyst, some chop, then a steadier climb toward the low-40s as value gravity asserts.
Invalidated ifA break below $34 on volume, or a lost/deferred defense contract, would invalidate the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $37.55 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $37.55 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $34.63–$40.47 typical range · internal point $37.90 | — | ±7.8% | 6/10 | Mild lift from defense win in risk-on tape |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $33.31–$41.79 typical range · internal point $38.30 | — | ±11.3% | 6/10 | Slow drift up, low beta caps momentum |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $38.80 | — | +3.3% | 5/10 | Consolidation as sentiment fades, awaiting catalyst |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $39.60 | — | +5.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print anticipation, beat streak supports bid |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $40.40 | — | +7.6% | 5/10 | Value convergence begins, government services demand |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $41.20 | — | +9.7% | 4/10 | Gradual re-rating toward fair value anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $42.00 | — | +11.9% | 4/10 | Continued grind toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $41.20 (+9.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $37.55 |
| Composite fair value | $46.96 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $45.84 |
| DCF fair value | $45.98 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $36.00 |
| Value net score | +30 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +19 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 40.7% 3m 39.1% 6m 37.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.37 3m 0.86 5m 0.61 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -7.7% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | 13d behind | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260817-125739-500e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260817-125739-500e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260817-125739-500e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-KBR-20260817-125739-500e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | KBR-20260803-164946-4246 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.55 | $42.00 | +11.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $37.83 | $42.90 | +13.4% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.