Made on
Aug 18, 2026
Price at call
$261.31
6-month call
Bear -7.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$242.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.4% to $242.00
Predicted High
$273.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$242.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.4%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 18, 2026 3:08 am
Bear
AMZN trends lower to
$242.00
(-7.4% from $261.31)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAMZN rides risk-on momentum and AWS re-acceleration narrative for a few more weeks, but rich valuation (composite FV ~$190) and beta 1.47 create gravity as the 6-month horizon lengthens. Expect a modest melt-up into fall earnings, then a partial fade toward but not to fair value.
Invalidated ifBreak below $230 on volume, or AWS growth deceleration in Q3 print, invalidates the ride; sustained close above $290 invalidates the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $261.31 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 18, 2026 | — | $261.31 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 1, 2026 | $239.13–$283.49 typical range · internal point $264.50 | — | ±8.5% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on tape carry into early September |
| 1 month | Sep 18, 2026 | $229.16–$293.46 typical range · internal point $270.00 | — | ±12.3% | 6/10 | Platform narrative peaks pre-Q3 earnings anticipation |
| 2 months | Oct 18, 2026 | $273.00 | — | +4.5% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely inline, AWS beat sustains bid |
| 3 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $265.00 | — | +1.4% | 5/10 | Post-earnings digestion, valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $255.00 | — | -2.4% | 4/10 | Year-end profit-taking on high-beta winners |
| 5 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $248.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | January rotation, fair-value pull intensifies |
| 6 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $242.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Drift toward anchored-PE support, sentiment cools |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $253.05 (-3.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $261.31 |
| Composite fair value | $190.48 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $193.52 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $334.71 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -43 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +64 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 58.6% 3m 42.6% 6m 36.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.83 3m 1.47 5m 1.44 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 29, 2026 | 20d behind | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260817-123657-ddd3 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260817-123657-ddd3 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260817-123657-ddd3 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMZN-20260817-123657-ddd3 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 18, 2026 | freshest | AMZN-20260729-000735-d315 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.