CCEP
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Coca-Cola Europacific Partners PLC
Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$107.52
6-month call
Neutral -1.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$106.00
Great value below
$90.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-1.4% to $106.00
Predicted High
$108.20
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$104.50
at 5 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.8%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:21 pm
Neutral
CCEP trends range-bound to
$106.00
(-1.4% from $107.52)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisCCEP trades slightly above composite fair value but below DCF, with strong quality and consistent earnings beats supporting a gentle drift. Low beta and no near-term catalyst keep the path range-bound, with mild mean reversion toward the mid-100s over the window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $100 support or above $115 on volume; unexpected earnings guidance cut
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $107.52 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $107.52 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $102.46–$112.58 typical range · internal point $107.80 | — | ±4.7% | 7/10 | Low-vol drift, risk-on tape offers marginal lift |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $100.19–$114.85 typical range · internal point $108.20 | — | ±6.8% | 6/10 | Steady bottler compounder narrative persists |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $106.50 | — | -0.9% | 5/10 | Mild pullback toward composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $105.00 | — | -2.3% | 5/10 | Value gravity nudges price toward $95 anchor |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $106.20 | — | -1.2% | 4/10 | Year-end defensive rotation supports low-beta name |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $104.50 | — | -2.8% | 4/10 | Fair value drag continues absent catalyst |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $106.00 | — | -1.4% | 3/10 | Settles between fair value and DCF midpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $109.15 (+1.5%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $107.52 |
| Composite fair value | $95.07 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $93.71 |
| DCF fair value | $112.91 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $90.00 |
| Value net score | -56 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 25.1% 3m 23.6% 6m 24.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.48 3m -0.37 5m 0.22 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 2.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | 1d behind | CCEP-20260818-002006-f882 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260819-113302-6afd |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260819-113302-6afd |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260819-113302-6afd |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-CCEP-20260819-113302-6afd |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | CCEP-20260819-002219-540c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $107.52 | $106.00 | -1.4% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $105.88 | $99.00 | -6.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.