Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$261.02
6-month call
Bull +16.8%
Target by Feb 2027
$305.00
Great value below
$215.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+16.8% to $305.00
Predicted High
$305.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$264.50
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:21 pm
Bull
ALL trends higher to
$305.00
(+16.8% from $261.02)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisALL has strong momentum (23% trailing 6mo), risk-on regime, positive sentiment, and consistent EPS beats, with valuation anchors far above spot suggesting upside. However, negative beta and mixed value/quality signals argue against fully closing the gap to $405+ in six months; expect steady grind higher with mild consolidation.
Invalidated ifBreak below $240 support or regime flip to risk-off would invalidate; failure to hold $260 through September signals momentum exhaustion.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $261.02 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $261.02 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $244.87–$277.17 typical range · internal point $264.50 | — | ±6.2% | 7/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry near-term drift up |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $237.62–$284.42 typical range · internal point $270.00 | — | ±9.0% | 6/10 | Sentiment tailwind extends, no earnings catalyst yet |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $278.00 | — | +6.5% | 5/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value anchors |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $285.00 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely reinforces beat streak, modest rerate |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $292.00 | — | +11.9% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, insurance sector seasonal strength |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $298.00 | — | +14.2% | 4/10 | Gradual convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $305.00 | — | +16.8% | 3/10 | Partial gap closure; full $405 baseline too aggressive |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $405.62 (+55.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $261.02 |
| Composite fair value | $638.73 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $724.50 |
| DCF fair value | $632.35 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $651.48 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $215.00 |
| Value net score | -42 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +38 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 31.3% 3m 31.1% 6m 25.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -0.74 3m -1.14 5m -0.60 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 23.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 11, 2026 | 7d behind | ALL-20260811-144642-5e53 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALL-20260819-084802-774f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALL-20260819-084802-774f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALL-20260819-084802-774f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-ALL-20260819-084802-774f |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ALL-20260819-001919-bd96 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.