Made on
Aug 19, 2026
Price at call
$244.45
6-month call
Bear -13.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$212.00
Great value below
$190.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-13.3% to $212.00
Predicted High
$249.50
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$212.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-13.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 19, 2026 12:22 pm
Bear
FERG trends lower to
$212.00
(-13.3% from $244.45)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisFERG is riding S&P 500 inclusion euphoria and a risk-on tape well above composite fair value near $175. Momentum likely persists into autumn, then value gravity and a stretched narrative pull the price lower into winter, with no earnings catalyst to reset expectations.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $260 on volume or regime flip to risk-off with FERG holding $240 would falsify the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $244.45 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 19, 2026 | — | $244.45 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 2, 2026 | $228.89–$260.01 typical range · internal point $247.00 | — | ±6.4% | 6/10 | Inclusion flow and risk-on momentum still dominant |
| 1 month | Sep 19, 2026 | $221.90–$267.00 typical range · internal point $249.50 | — | ±9.2% | 5/10 | Peak euphoria; index rebalance demand lingers |
| 2 months | Oct 19, 2026 | $242.00 | — | -1.0% | 4/10 | Momentum cools; valuation chatter resurfaces |
| 3 months | Nov 19, 2026 | $232.00 | — | -5.1% | 4/10 | Value gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 4 months | Dec 19, 2026 | $224.00 | — | -8.4% | 4/10 | Year-end derisking; no catalyst to defend premium |
| 5 months | Jan 19, 2027 | $218.00 | — | -10.8% | 4/10 | Deterministic baseline zone; bearish DCF weight |
| 6 months | Feb 19, 2027 | $212.00 | — | -13.3% | 3/10 | Drift toward composite fair value with rising uncertainty |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $228.21 (-6.6%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $244.45 |
| Composite fair value | $175.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $173.74 |
| DCF fair value | $116.50 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $374.92 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $190.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +46 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 36.7% 3m 32.0% 6m 32.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.44 3m 1.06 5m 1.07 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -5.9% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 18, 2026 | 1d behind | FERG-20260818-002026-6383 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260819-064623-2674 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260819-064623-2674 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260819-064623-2674 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-FERG-20260819-064623-2674 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | FERG-20260819-002259-cb17 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 19, 2026 | freshest | FERG-20260819-002259-cb17 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $244.45 | $212.00 | -13.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $230.67 | $214.00 | -7.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.