ODD
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Oddity Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Made on
Aug 20, 2026
Price at call
$12.46
6-month call
Bull +36.4%
Target by Feb 2027
$17.00
Great value below
$14.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+36.4% to $17.00
Predicted High
$17.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$12.70
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 20, 2026 1:02 pm
Bull
ODD trends higher to
$17.00
(+36.4% from $12.46)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisODD is deeply oversold at $12.46 with fair value anchors far above ($26-$41), but a bruised chart, negative sentiment, and 2.4 beta mean recovery is choppy. Expect a hesitant base near current levels, then gradual mean-reversion as value gravity pulls toward the mid-teens, with upside capped by fragile narrative.
Invalidated ifA close below $10.50 would signal continued distribution and invalidate the recovery thesis; conversely a sharp break above $18 pre-earnings would suggest a faster re-rating.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $12.46 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 20, 2026 | — | $12.46 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 3, 2026 | $9.69–$15.23 typical range · internal point $12.70 | — | ±22.2% | 6/10 | Oversold bounce meets overhead supply near current base |
| What actually happened: closed $14.49 on Sep 2, 2026 = +16.3% vs the call (predicted +1.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 14.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±22.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.3% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 20, 2026 | $8.45–$16.47 typical range · internal point $13.20 | — | ±32.2% | 5/10 | Risk-on tape lifts high-beta names modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $18.11 on Sep 18, 2026 = +45.4% vs the call (predicted +5.9%) · direction HIT (called up, was up) · off by 39.4 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±32.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 20, 2026 | $13.80 | — | +10.8% | 4/10 | Value buyers accumulate near attractive-below threshold |
| 3 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $14.60 | — | +17.2% | 4/10 | Grind higher as forensic and quality signals stabilize |
| 4 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $15.40 | — | +23.6% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning favors beaten-down consumer names |
| 5 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $16.20 | — | +30.0% | 3/10 | Value gravity toward DCF anchor, sentiment still heavy |
| 6 months | Feb 20, 2027 | $17.00 | — | +36.4% | 3/10 | Partial convergence toward baseline, narrative unresolved |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $20.41 (+63.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $12.46 |
| Composite fair value | $37.33 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $41.78 |
| DCF fair value | $26.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $80.12 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $14.00 |
| Value net score | +45 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +61 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 92.0% 3m 111.4% 6m 134.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 7.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 2.80 3m 1.58 5m 1.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -56.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 17d behind | ODD-20260802-132328-45ee |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260820-105336-50b5 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260820-105336-50b5 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260820-105336-50b5 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260820-105336-50b5 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260820-010503-9948 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 20, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260820-010503-9948 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.