Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$293.86
6-month call
Bear -7.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$273.00
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.1% to $273.00
Predicted High
$298.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$273.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:07 pm
Bear
WAB trends lower to
$273.00
(-7.1% from $293.86)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisWAB trades well above every fair-value anchor, but a live turnaround narrative, buyback, low beta, and neutral regime keep near-term drift positive. Value gravity slowly reasserts over the 6-month window, pulling the path modestly lower toward the deterministic baseline without a full mean-reversion.
Invalidated ifA break above $310 on volume or below $270 would falsify the drift-then-fade pattern.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $293.86 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $293.86 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $275.34–$312.38 typical range · internal point $296.50 | — | ±6.3% | 6/10 | momentum and buyback bid persist near-term |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $267.02–$320.70 typical range · internal point $298.00 | — | ±9.1% | 5/10 | sentiment tailwind, low beta into neutral tape |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $295.00 | — | +0.4% | 5/10 | narrative intact, no catalyst either way |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $289.00 | — | -1.7% | 4/10 | pre-earnings de-risking as valuation stretched |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $284.00 | — | -3.4% | 4/10 | post-print digestion, value gravity begins |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $278.00 | — | -5.4% | 4/10 | anchors well below, multiple compression |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $273.00 | — | -7.1% | 4/10 | drift toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $269.68 (-8.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] High debt risk — interest coverage dangerously low or refinancing needed
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $293.86 |
| Composite fair value | $123.15 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $135.00 |
| DCF fair value | $170.55 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $80.06 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 24.6% 3m 31.6% 6m 30.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.59 3m 0.65 5m 0.99 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 11.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | WAB-20260821-010236-0246 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-WAB-20260821-011936-171a |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-WAB-20260821-011936-171a |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-WAB-20260821-011936-171a |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-WAB-20260821-011936-171a |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | WAB-20260821-010236-0246 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | WAB-20260821-010236-0246 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $293.86 | $273.00 | -7.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $302.49 | $292.00 | -3.5% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.