Made on
Aug 21, 2026
Price at call
$206.03
6-month call
Bear -10.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$185.50
Great value below
$170.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-10.0% to $185.50
Predicted High
$204.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$185.50
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-10.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 21, 2026 1:08 pm
Bear
ODFL trends lower to
$185.50
(-10.0% from $206.03)
by Feb 2027.
decay
ThesisODFL trades at a rich premium to any reasonable fair value anchor, but quiet-quality narrative and low beta keep the fade slow. Absent a catalyst, expect gradual valuation compression through year-end with mild stabilization as it approaches the anchored-PE zone near $181.
Invalidated ifA freight-cycle upturn signal or macro regime shift to risk-on that lifts ODFL back above $220 with volume.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $206.03 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 21, 2026 | — | $206.03 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 4, 2026 | $191.88–$220.18 typical range · internal point $204.50 | — | ±6.9% | 6/10 | Neutral regime, mild drift lower on valuation fatigue |
| 1 month | Sep 21, 2026 | $185.52–$226.54 typical range · internal point $202.00 | — | ±10.0% | 6/10 | No catalyst, gravity toward anchored-PE begins |
| 2 months | Oct 21, 2026 | $198.50 | — | -3.7% | 5/10 | Q3 print approaches, cyclical caution weighs |
| 3 months | Nov 21, 2026 | $195.00 | — | -5.4% | 5/10 | Earnings likely beat but guidance caps upside |
| 4 months | Dec 21, 2026 | $191.00 | — | -7.3% | 4/10 | Year-end tax-loss avoidance, macro-cyclical drag |
| 5 months | Jan 21, 2027 | $188.00 | — | -8.8% | 4/10 | January reset, value gravity toward $181 anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 21, 2027 | $185.50 | — | -10.0% | 4/10 | Approaching anchored-PE, sentiment stabilizes near support |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $180.45 (-12.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $206.03 |
| Composite fair value | $81.84 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $84.51 |
| DCF fair value | $48.15 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $181.06 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $170.00 |
| Value net score | -49 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +56 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 29.4% 3m 34.5% 6m 38.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.2% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.54 3m 0.78 5m 0.85 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 4.8% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260821-010316-bf95 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260821-012148-7564 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260821-012148-7564 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260821-012148-7564 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODFL-20260821-012148-7564 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260821-010316-bf95 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 21, 2026 | freshest | ODFL-20260821-010316-bf95 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $206.03 | $185.50 | -10.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 22, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $234.79 | $200.00 | -14.8% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.