Made on
Aug 23, 2026
Price at call
$76.08
6-month call
Bear -15.9%
Target by Feb 2027
$64.00
Great value below
$45.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-15.9% to $64.00
Predicted High
$77.20
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$64.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-15.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 23, 2026 1:11 pm
Bear
MCHP trends lower to
$64.00
(-15.9% from $76.08)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMCHP trades at a massive premium to fair value ($76 vs $30 composite FV) with negative value and quality scores, but a strong risk-on regime and AI/platform narrative are supporting price. Expect near-term momentum drift with mild upside, then gradual mean reversion as valuation gravity and 'sell the news' pressure dominate over the 6-month horizon.
Invalidated ifA break above $85 on strong volume with sustained AI/datacenter guidance raises, or a break below $60 signaling regime shift, would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $76.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 23, 2026 | — | $76.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 6, 2026 | $66.46–$85.70 typical range · internal point $77.20 | — | ±12.6% | 6/10 | Risk-on regime and momentum carry price slightly higher |
| 1 month | Sep 23, 2026 | $62.14–$90.02 typical range · internal point $76.50 | — | ±18.3% | 5/10 | Narrative holds but valuation whispers cap upside |
| 2 months | Oct 23, 2026 | $73.00 | — | -4.0% | 5/10 | Sell-the-news pressure begins as tape cools |
| 3 months | Nov 23, 2026 | $70.00 | — | -8.0% | 4/10 | Value gravity engages, quality concerns resurface |
| 4 months | Dec 23, 2026 | $68.50 | — | -10.0% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning, high-beta names de-risked |
| 5 months | Jan 23, 2027 | $66.00 | — | -13.2% | 4/10 | Fair-value pull continues, earnings uncertainty ahead |
| 6 months | Feb 23, 2027 | $64.00 | — | -15.9% | 3/10 | Gradual reversion toward deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $59.41 (-21.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] AI analysis identifies strong headwinds — multiple forces working against this stock
-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $76.08 |
| Composite fair value | $30.41 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $22.04 |
| DCF fair value | $30.28 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $36.02 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $45.00 |
| Value net score | -76 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -19 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 66.9% 3m 63.5% 6m 54.7% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.13 3m 3.26 5m 2.57 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -2.1% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260822-151855-423e |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260822-153908-8d53 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260822-153908-8d53 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260822-153908-8d53 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 22, 2026 | freshest | ext-MCHP-20260822-153908-8d53 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260822-151855-423e |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 23, 2026 | freshest | MCHP-20260822-151855-423e |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $76.08 | $64.00 | -15.9% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $78.86 | $65.00 | -17.6% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.