Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$48.12
6-month call
Bull +13.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$54.50
Great value below
$42.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+13.3% to $54.50
Predicted High
$54.50
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$47.00
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-2.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
NVO trends higher to
$54.50
(+13.3% from $48.12)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisNVO is caught between an attractive valuation gap (composite FV ~$57, DCF ~$64) and heavy sentiment overhang from Lilly competitive dread. Absent a near-term catalyst the tape drifts flat-to-lower first, then value gravity and a strong recent earnings track pull it toward the mid-50s over the back half of the window.
Invalidated ifA close below $44 sustained for a week, or a Lilly clinical/label shock that widens the GLP-1 gap, would falsify the recovery leg.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $48.12 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $48.12 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $44.45–$51.79 typical range · internal point $47.60 | — | ±7.6% | 6/10 | Sentiment overhang dominates near term with no catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $46.60 on Sep 4, 2026 = -3.2% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 2.1 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±7.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $42.81–$53.43 typical range · internal point $47.00 | — | ±11.0% | 6/10 | Continued Lilly narrative pressure, low beta drift |
| What actually happened: closed $38.62 on Sep 24, 2026 = -19.7% vs the call (predicted -2.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 17.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±11.0%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $48.50 | — | +0.8% | 5/10 | Value buyers step in near attractive-below threshold |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $50.80 | — | +5.6% | 5/10 | Earnings season likely reaffirms GLP-1 growth |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $52.50 | — | +9.1% | 4/10 | Year-end mean reversion toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $53.80 | — | +11.8% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward baseline endpoint |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $54.50 | — | +13.3% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic baseline, below signal FV |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $53.90 (+12.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $48.12 |
| Composite fair value | $56.68 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $62.15 |
| DCF fair value | $63.97 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $42.00 |
| Value net score | +39 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +39 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 45.6% 3m 38.2% 6m 35.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.12 3m -0.32 5m 0.32 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 18.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 25d behind | NVO-20260730-180604-92c8 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260824-232234-8182 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260824-232234-8182 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260824-232234-8182 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | ext-NVO-20260824-232234-8182 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | NVO-20260824-230001-0852 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 24, 2026 | freshest | NVO-20260824-230001-0852 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.07 | $51.00 | +10.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $48.12 | $54.50 | +13.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.42 | $53.40 | +15.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 14, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $46.72 | $52.40 | +12.2% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 6, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $44.53 | $51.50 | +15.7% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $47.08 | $55.80 | +18.5% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.