ODD
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Oddity Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares
Consumer Defensive · Household & Personal Products
Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$14.09
6-month call
Bull +32.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$18.60
Great value below
$16.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+32.0% to $18.60
Predicted High
$18.60
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$13.40
at 1 month
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-4.9%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:07 pm
Bull
ODD trends higher to
$18.60
(+32.0% from $14.09)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisODD trades near bear-scenario value with deep sentiment damage and high beta, so near-term drift stays soft as fallen-angel selling lingers. Over months, the wide gap to composite fair value ($37) and value-lens attractiveness below $16 pulls the price higher, though the neutral regime and fragile narrative cap the recovery well short of the deterministic $21.82 endpoint.
Invalidated ifA close below $12 on heavy volume or a guide-down/miss confirming structural demand loss would falsify the recovery path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $14.09 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $14.09 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $10.94–$17.24 typical range · internal point $13.70 | — | ±22.4% | 6/10 | High beta and negative sentiment keep early drift soft |
| What actually happened: closed $13.75 on Sep 4, 2026 = -2.4% vs the call (predicted -2.8%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±22.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $9.52–$18.66 typical range · internal point $13.40 | — | ±32.4% | 5/10 | Fallen-angel tape pressure extends into month one |
| What actually happened: closed $18.07 on Sep 24, 2026 = +28.3% vs the call (predicted -4.9%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 33.1 pp · accuracy 2/10 · typical range ±32.4%: inside the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $14.20 | — | +0.8% | 4/10 | Value buyers step in near bear-scenario floor |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $15.60 | — | +10.7% | 4/10 | Mean reversion as oversold conditions unwind |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $16.80 | — | +19.2% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning and value gravity build |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $17.90 | — | +27.0% | 3/10 | Continued convergence toward DCF anchor |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $18.60 | — | +32.0% | 3/10 | Partial reprice toward composite fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $21.82 (+54.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $14.09 |
| Composite fair value | $37.37 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $39.40 |
| DCF fair value | $26.32 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $80.28 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $16.00 |
| Value net score | +54 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +50 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 94.9% 3m 112.3% 6m 134.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 7.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 3.52 3m 1.81 5m 1.18 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -54.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 2, 2026 | 22d behind | ODD-20260802-132328-45ee |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260825-002204-f96c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260825-002204-f96c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260825-002204-f96c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-ODD-20260825-002204-f96c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260825-000001-ac75 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ODD-20260825-000001-ac75 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
4 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.