Made on
Aug 25, 2026
Price at call
$85.08
6-month call
Bull +34.0%
Target by Feb 2027
$114.00
Great value below
$95.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+34.0% to $114.00
Predicted High
$114.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$85.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 25, 2026 1:12 pm
Bull
LRN trends higher to
$114.00
(+34.0% from $85.08)
by Feb 2027.
flat-then-break
ThesisLRN trades well below composite fair value ($161) with strong quality (70) and consistent earnings beats, but neutral sentiment and no near-term catalyst keep the tape sluggish. Expect gradual value convergence over the 6-month window, accelerating modestly as a fresh earnings print likely lands mid-window and closes some of the gap toward the $118-128 baseline range.
Invalidated ifBreak below $80 on volume or a missed earnings print would invalidate gradual convergence thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $85.08 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 25, 2026 | — | $85.08 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 8, 2026 | $75.31–$94.85 typical range · internal point $85.90 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift near current with neutral regime |
| What actually happened: closed $84.68 on Sep 4, 2026 = -0.5% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P +0.5% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 25, 2026 | $70.92–$99.24 typical range · internal point $87.50 | — | ±16.6% | 6/10 | Value buyers active below $95 attractive threshold |
| What actually happened: closed $80.04 on Sep 24, 2026 = -5.9% vs the call (predicted +2.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.8 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 25, 2026 | $91.00 | — | +7.0% | 5/10 | Slow grind higher as gap to fair value pulls |
| 3 months | Nov 25, 2026 | $97.00 | — | +14.0% | 5/10 | Likely earnings print reinforces beat streak |
| 4 months | Dec 25, 2026 | $102.00 | — | +19.9% | 4/10 | Post-earnings drift, narrative slowly repairs |
| 5 months | Jan 25, 2027 | $108.00 | — | +26.9% | 4/10 | Continued convergence toward composite fair value |
| 6 months | Feb 25, 2027 | $114.00 | — | +34.0% | 3/10 | Approaching prior prediction endpoint zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $128.39 (+50.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $85.08 |
| Composite fair value | $161.34 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $159.26 |
| DCF fair value | $193.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $95.00 |
| Value net score | +54 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +70 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 70.0% 3m 57.7% 6m 46.5% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.77 3m -1.43 5m -0.33 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 5.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 9d behind | LRN-20260815-101123-e48c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-024532-1a60 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-024532-1a60 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-024532-1a60 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-024532-1a60 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260825-023001-3c5c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260825-023001-3c5c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.65 | $110.00 | +29.9% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $86.55 | $110.50 | +27.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.19 | $108.00 | +26.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.97 | $108.00 | +28.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.08 | $114.00 | +34.0% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.53 | $118.00 | +39.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.