Made on
Aug 26, 2026
Price at call
$83.97
6-month call
Bull +28.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$108.00
Great value below
$75.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+28.6% to $108.00
Predicted High
$108.00
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$83.40
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 26, 2026 1:05 pm
Bull
LRN trends higher to
$108.00
(+28.6% from $83.97)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisLRN trades at a meaningful discount to composite fair value ($134.77) with strong quality (71/100) and defensive characteristics. Absent an active catalyst and with slightly negative sentiment, expect gradual mean-reversion upward toward fair value over the six-month window, accelerating as the discount attracts value flows.
Invalidated ifBreak below $78 on volume, or a negative enrollment/guidance pre-announcement, would invalidate the recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $83.97 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 26, 2026 | — | $83.97 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 9, 2026 | $74.33–$93.61 typical range · internal point $83.40 | — | ±11.5% | 6/10 | Neutral sentiment, low beta, minor drift in quiet tape |
| What actually happened: closed $82.15 on Sep 8, 2026 = -2.2% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.5 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±11.5%: inside the band · S&P 0.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 26, 2026 | $70.00–$97.94 typical range · internal point $84.80 | — | ±16.6% | 5/10 | Slow drift as value discount begins attracting attention |
| What actually happened: closed $78.56 on Sep 25, 2026 = -6.4% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±16.6%: inside the band · S&P +0.9% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $88.50 | — | +5.4% | 5/10 | Value gravity engages, defensive bid in risk-on regime |
| 3 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $93.00 | — | +10.8% | 5/10 | Likely earnings print reinforces steady-compounder narrative |
| 4 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $97.50 | — | +16.1% | 4/10 | Continued rerating toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $103.00 | — | +22.7% | 4/10 | Quality premium expands as discount narrows |
| 6 months | Feb 26, 2027 | $108.00 | — | +28.6% | 4/10 | Approaches deterministic baseline; still below fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $114.14 (+35.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[caution] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $83.97 |
| Composite fair value | $134.77 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $136.55 |
| DCF fair value | $160.94 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $75.00 |
| Value net score | +28 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 65.0% 3m 57.6% 6m 46.4% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.6% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.70 3m -1.44 5m -0.37 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -0.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 15, 2026 | 10d behind | LRN-20260815-101123-e48c |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-180556-0c0f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-180556-0c0f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-180556-0c0f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | ext-LRN-20260825-180556-0c0f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260825-023001-3c5c |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 25, 2026 | freshest | LRN-20260825-023001-3c5c |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
6 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.65 | $110.00 | +29.9% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 31, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $86.55 | $110.50 | +27.7% | Mar 2027 | view |
| Aug 27, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.19 | $108.00 | +26.8% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $83.97 | $108.00 | +28.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Aug 25, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $85.08 | $114.00 | +34.0% | Feb 2027 | view |
| Aug 21, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $84.53 | $118.00 | +39.6% | Feb 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.