Made on
Sep 20, 2026
Price at call
$105.17
6-month call
Bear -19.2%
Target by Mar 2027
$85.00
Great value below
$65.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-19.2% to $85.00
Predicted High
$112.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$85.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-19.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 20, 2026 1:00 pm
Bear
AAOI trends lower to
$85.00
(-19.2% from $105.17)
by Mar 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAAOI is a high-beta AI-optics narrative name with poor value/quality but strong sentiment momentum. Expect near-term drift higher on AI bid, then mean-reversion pressure as valuation gravity and elevated volatility assert themselves over the multi-month horizon.
Invalidated ifA sustained break below $75 (sentiment collapse) or above $140 (AI capex re-rating) within 2 months would falsify this path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $105.17 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 20, 2026 | — | $105.17 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 4, 2026 | $78.69–$131.65 typical range · internal point $108.50 | — | ±25.2% | 6/10 | AI-optics bid and sector momentum carry near-term |
| 1 month | Oct 20, 2026 | $66.80–$143.54 typical range · internal point $112.00 | — | ±36.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists, high beta amplifies tape |
| 2 months | Nov 20, 2026 | $106.00 | — | +0.8% | 4/10 | Momentum cools, no catalyst, volatility bites |
| 3 months | Dec 20, 2026 | $98.00 | — | -6.8% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking, valuation gravity begins |
| 4 months | Jan 20, 2027 | $92.00 | — | -12.5% | 4/10 | Poor quality/value lenses reassert, narrative fatigue |
| 5 months | Feb 20, 2027 | $88.00 | — | -16.3% | 3/10 | Mean-reversion toward attractive-below zone |
| 6 months | Mar 20, 2027 | $85.00 | — | -19.2% | 3/10 | Continued drift toward $65 fair-value threshold |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 6 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
No positive earnings — traditional DCF and EPV are not applicable
-
Note
Valuation is inherently speculative — based on revenue multiples and growth assumptions
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $105.17 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -79 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | -50 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 83.3% 3m 126.4% 6m 139.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 8.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.00 3m 5.95 5m 4.82 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 3.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 11, 2026 | 8d behind | — |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAOI-20260919-222034-656c |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAOI-20260919-222034-656c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAOI-20260919-222034-656c |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | ext-AAOI-20260919-222034-656c |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | AAOI-20260919-215801-2806 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 19, 2026 | freshest | AAOI-20260919-215801-2806 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $105.17 | $85.00 | -19.2% | Mar 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.