Made on
Aug 27, 2026
Price at call
$2.89
6-month call
Bull +19.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$3.45
Great value below
$2.60
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+19.6% to $3.45
Predicted High
$3.45
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$2.87
in 2 weeks
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-0.5%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 27, 2026 1:07 pm
Bull
ABEV trends higher to
$3.45
(+19.6% from $2.89)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisABEV screens cheap versus multiple fair-value anchors and quality is solid, but a defensive low-beta EM name with negative sentiment and no near-term catalyst drifts before value gravity pulls it toward mid-$3s over months. Expect a soft start, then gradual mean reversion as Brazil-macro sentiment stabilizes.
Invalidated ifA break below $2.60 on BRL weakness or a Brazil macro shock, or failure to reclaim $3.00 within 3 months, invalidates the recovery.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $2.89 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 27, 2026 | — | $2.89 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 10, 2026 | $2.77–$3.01 typical range · internal point $2.87 | — | ±4.3% | 6/10 | Low-beta drift, negative sentiment, no catalyst near-term |
| What actually happened: closed $3.01 on Sep 9, 2026 = +4.2% vs the call (predicted -0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 4.8 pp · accuracy 8/10 · typical range ±4.3%: inside the band · S&P -1.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 27, 2026 | $2.71–$3.07 typical range · internal point $2.92 | — | ±6.2% | 5/10 | Mild risk-on tape lifts EM defensives modestly |
| What actually happened: closed $2.91 on Sep 25, 2026 = +0.7% vs the call (predicted +1.0%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.2%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 27, 2026 | $3.02 | — | +4.7% | 5/10 | Value screens attract buyers below composite fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 27, 2026 | $3.15 | — | +9.2% | 5/10 | Q3 print likely another beat, sixth straight |
| 4 months | Dec 27, 2026 | $3.25 | — | +12.7% | 4/10 | Year-end positioning into cheap defensive EM names |
| 5 months | Jan 27, 2027 | $3.35 | — | +16.1% | 4/10 | Gradual convergence toward DCF and signal-adjusted anchors |
| 6 months | Feb 27, 2027 | $3.45 | — | +19.6% | 4/10 | Value gravity approaches deterministic baseline endpoint |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $3.48 (+20.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 0 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[warning] Sector in contraction — demand weakening across the industry
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $2.89 |
| Composite fair value | $4.11 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $3.77 |
| DCF fair value | $4.04 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $4.87 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $2.60 |
| Value net score | +29 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +69 |
| Memo confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 19.1% 3m 21.4% 6m 34.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.17 3m 0.24 5m 0.65 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -9.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 22, 2026 | 4d behind | ABEV-20260822-145935-a80a |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260826-153902-8d91 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260826-153902-8d91 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260826-153902-8d91 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ABEV-20260826-153902-8d91 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 27, 2026 | freshest | ABEV-20260822-145935-a80a |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.