Made on
Aug 8, 2026
Price at call
$271.34
6-month call
Bear -5.3%
Target by Feb 2027
$257.00
Great value below
$225.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-5.3% to $257.00
Predicted High
$273.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$257.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-5.3%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 8, 2026 1:03 am
Bear
ADP trends lower to
$257.00
(-5.3% from $271.34)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisADP trades well above every fair-value anchor with a -73 value net, but quality is elite and the tape is risk-on with negative beta cushioning drawdowns. Near-term drift stays supported by momentum and compounder narrative; value gravity and softening payroll data slowly pull it toward the mid-250s over six months.
Invalidated ifA break above $285 on strong payroll data, or a break below $250 signaling early value convergence and macro softening.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $271.34 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 8, 2026 | — | $271.34 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 22, 2026 | $254.10–$288.58 typical range · internal point $272.50 | — | ±6.4% | 7/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum extend near-term drift |
| What actually happened: closed $280.72 on Aug 21, 2026 = +3.5% vs the call (predicted +0.4%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.0 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±6.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 8, 2026 | $246.36–$296.32 typical range · internal point $273.00 | — | ±9.2% | 6/10 | Compounder bid persists, no catalyst to break trend |
| 2 months | Oct 8, 2026 | $270.00 | — | -0.5% | 5/10 | Payroll data softness begins pressuring narrative |
| 3 months | Nov 8, 2026 | $266.00 | — | -2.0% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning, valuation stretch noticed |
| 4 months | Dec 8, 2026 | $262.00 | — | -3.4% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward anchored-PE zone |
| 5 months | Jan 8, 2027 | $259.00 | — | -4.5% | 4/10 | January reset, multiple compression continues gently |
| 6 months | Feb 8, 2027 | $257.00 | — | -5.3% | 4/10 | Convergence toward deterministic baseline and fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $265.71 (-2.1%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $271.34 |
| Composite fair value | $198.67 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $220.69 |
| DCF fair value | $213.46 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $252.25 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $225.00 |
| Value net score | -73 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +87 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 33.3% 3m 31.9% 6m 32.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.0% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.08 3m -0.67 5m -0.39 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 16.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ADP-20260808-002201-19c5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADP-20260808-005241-4915 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADP-20260808-005241-4915 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADP-20260808-005241-4915 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADP-20260808-005241-4915 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ADP-20260808-002201-19c5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 8, 2026 | freshest | ADP-20260808-002201-19c5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $271.34 | $257.00 | -5.3% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jul 9, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $241.37 | $236.00 | -2.2% | Jan 2027 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.