Made on
Jul 26, 2026
Price at call
$209.75
6-month call
Bear -7.0%
Target by Jan 2027
$195.00
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-7.0% to $195.00
Predicted High
$213.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$195.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-7.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Jul 26, 2026 1:32 am
Bear
ADSK trends lower to
$195.00
(-7.0% from $209.75)
by Jan 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisADSK trades far above composite fair value ($102) with a strongly negative value lens, but strong quality, positive sentiment from analyst initiation and the AI-design narrative, and no near-term earnings catalyst keep the fade gradual. Expect modest near-term drift up on sentiment, then slow gravity toward the deterministic baseline as valuation reasserts.
Invalidated ifA break above $225 on sustained volume, or a break below $185 before month 3, would falsify the gradual-fade path.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $209.75 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Jul 26, 2026 | — | $209.75 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 9, 2026 | $193.15–$226.35 typical range · internal point $212.50 | — | ±7.9% | 6/10 | Fresh analyst initiation and AI narrative sustain near-term bid |
| What actually happened: closed $249.08 on Aug 7, 2026 = +18.8% vs the call (predicted +1.3%) · direction MISS (called flat, was up) · off by 17.4 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±7.9%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +4.7% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Aug 26, 2026 | $185.70–$233.80 typical range · internal point $213.00 | — | ±11.5% | 5/10 | Sentiment tailwind persists absent earnings catalyst |
| 2 months | Sep 26, 2026 | $208.50 | — | -0.6% | 5/10 | Momentum cools; valuation gravity begins to bite |
| 3 months | Oct 26, 2026 | $204.00 | — | -2.7% | 5/10 | Pre-earnings positioning; value lens pressure increases |
| 4 months | Nov 26, 2026 | $200.50 | — | -4.4% | 4/10 | Post-print digestion regardless of beat; multiple compression |
| 5 months | Dec 26, 2026 | $197.00 | — | -6.1% | 4/10 | Year-end tax selling amplifies fade toward baseline |
| 6 months | Jan 26, 2027 | $195.00 | — | -7.0% | 4/10 | Converges near deterministic endpoint as narrative dissolves |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $195.42 (-6.8%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
Valuation is extremely fragile — almost no scenarios support the current price
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $209.75 |
| Composite fair value | $102.20 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $106.56 |
| DCF fair value | $124.37 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | -94 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +95 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 35.7% 3m 39.7% 6m 40.1% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.5% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m -1.08 3m -0.36 5m 0.07 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -22.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ADSK-20260726-002605-be47 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADSK-20260726-012018-dceb |
ext-lens-quality |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADSK-20260726-012018-dceb |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADSK-20260726-012018-dceb |
ext-lens-value |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ext-ADSK-20260726-012018-dceb |
scenario-valuation |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ADSK-20260726-002605-be47 |
valuation-synthesis |
Jul 26, 2026 | freshest | ADSK-20260726-002605-be47 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $209.75 | $195.00 | -7.0% | Jan 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.