Made on
Aug 1, 2026
Price at call
$507.64
6-month call
Bear -11.7%
Target by Feb 2027
$448.00
Great value below
$340.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.7% to $448.00
Predicted High
$502.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$448.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.7%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 1, 2026 12:45 am
Bear
AMAT trends lower to
$448.00
(-11.7% from $507.64)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAMAT is trading 4-5x any reasonable fair value on AI cap-ex euphoria, but strong quality, no near-term earnings catalyst, and a neutral regime mean gravity works slowly. Expect choppy consolidation with a gradual fade as the narrative gets tested and the prior miss (down 13% vs flat call) shows momentum is already cracking.
Invalidated ifA decisive break above $560 on renewed AI cap-ex upgrades, or conversely a break below $430 accelerating the mean-reversion thesis faster than modeled.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $507.64 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 1, 2026 | — | $507.64 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 15, 2026 | $422.70–$592.58 typical range · internal point $502.00 | — | ±16.7% | 6/10 | Mild drift lower, high-beta consolidation post 49% run |
| What actually happened: closed $507.11 on Aug 14, 2026 = -0.1% vs the call (predicted -1.1%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 1.0 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±16.7%: inside the band · S&P +4.0% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 1, 2026 | $384.55–$630.73 typical range · internal point $495.00 | — | ±24.2% | 5/10 | No catalyst, sentiment cooling, regime neutral |
| What actually happened: closed $441.85 on Sep 1, 2026 = -13.0% vs the call (predicted -2.5%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 10.5 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±24.2%: inside the band · S&P +1.9% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 1, 2026 | $483.00 | — | -4.9% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins to bite, sector rotation risk |
| What actually happened: closed $511.38 on Sep 30, 2026 = +0.7% vs the call (predicted -4.9%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 5.6 pp · accuracy 8/10 · S&P +2.2% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 1, 2026 | $470.00 | — | -7.4% | 4/10 | Earnings window approaches, positioning trims |
| 4 months | Dec 1, 2026 | $462.00 | — | -9.0% | 4/10 | AI cap-ex narrative fatigue accelerates fade |
| 5 months | Jan 1, 2027 | $455.00 | — | -10.4% | 3/10 | Year-end profit taking on high-beta winners |
| 6 months | Feb 1, 2027 | $448.00 | — | -11.7% | 3/10 | Continued mean reversion toward deterministic anchor |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $435.45 (-14.2%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $507.64 |
| Composite fair value | $108.92 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $100.51 |
| DCF fair value | $89.28 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $184.80 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $340.00 |
| Value net score | -72 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +87 |
| Memo confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 91.2% 3m 84.0% 6m 70.6% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.3% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.95 3m 3.80 5m 3.04 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 49.0% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | AMAT-20260801-001034-94c7 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMAT-20260801-003431-ee4c |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMAT-20260801-003431-ee4c |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMAT-20260801-003431-ee4c |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMAT-20260801-003431-ee4c |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | AMAT-20260801-001034-94c7 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 1, 2026 | freshest | AMAT-20260801-001034-94c7 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $507.64 | $448.00 | -11.7% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Bear | $640.18 | $548.46 | -14.3% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.