Made on
Aug 5, 2026
Price at call
$518.58
6-month call
Bear -17.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$430.00
Great value below
$340.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-17.1% to $430.00
Predicted High
$495.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$425.00
at 3 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-18.0%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 5, 2026 1:33 am
Bear
AMD trends lower to
$430.00
(-17.1% from $518.58)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAMD is extended after a 110% six-month rip with a punishing sentiment shock (SpaceX defection, AI-diversification cracks) hitting into a risk-on tape. Expect near-term downside as momentum unwinds and value gravity (attractive only sub-$340) pulls the stock lower over months, with partial stabilization as the next earnings cycle approaches.
Invalidated ifA decisive reclaim above $560 on positive AI-customer news, or a major hyperscaler win announcement, would invalidate the fade thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $518.58 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 5, 2026 | — | $518.58 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 19, 2026 | $430.11–$607.05 typical range · internal point $495.00 | — | ±17.1% | 6/10 | Sentiment shock continues bleeding through overextended tape |
| What actually happened: closed $468.04 on Aug 19, 2026 = -9.8% vs the call (predicted -4.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±17.1%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 5, 2026 | $390.38–$646.78 typical range · internal point $470.00 | — | ±24.7% | 6/10 | Momentum unwind accelerates as AI narrative cracks widen |
| What actually happened: closed $477.45 on Sep 4, 2026 = -7.9% vs the call (predicted -9.4%) · direction HIT (called down, was down) · off by 1.4 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±24.7%: inside the band · S&P -0.1% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 5, 2026 | $445.00 | — | -14.2% | 5/10 | Value gravity pulls lower; high beta amplifies drift |
| What actually happened: closed $633.91 on Oct 2, 2026 = +22.2% vs the call (predicted -14.2%) · direction MISS (called down, was up) · off by 36.4 pp · accuracy 2/10 · S&P 0.0% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 3 months | Nov 5, 2026 | $425.00 | — | -18.0% | 5/10 | No catalyst; profit-taking from 6-month runners |
| 4 months | Dec 5, 2026 | $440.00 | — | -15.2% | 4/10 | Stabilization as earnings anticipation builds |
| 5 months | Jan 5, 2027 | $455.00 | — | -12.3% | 4/10 | Pre-earnings positioning; track record of beats supports |
| 6 months | Feb 5, 2027 | $430.00 | — | -17.1% | 3/10 | Post-print reaction uncertain; still above fair value |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $0.00 (+0.0%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 7 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
No usable fair-value anchor — brain-only (anchorless) mode: no v0.3 control line, prediction reasons from lenses/sentiment/regime/price behaviour.
-
Note
Traditional FCF-based DCF produces misleading results — company reinvests aggressively
-
Note
EPV is meaningless — the entire value proposition is future growth/optionality
-
Note
PE-based peer comparisons may fail — market values this outside its nominal industry
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: composite_fair_value.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: signal_adjusted.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $518.58 |
| Composite fair value | — |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | — |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | — |
| Value net score | -78 |
| Value confidence | 8 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +44 |
| Memo confidence | — / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 82.2% 3m 85.6% 6m 78.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 5.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 4.02 3m 4.49 5m 3.40 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 110.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#8eb3df85c300 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Jul 30, 2026 | 6d behind | AMD-20260730-001020-6c43 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMD-20260805-011617-ff4f |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMD-20260805-011617-ff4f |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMD-20260805-011617-ff4f |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | ext-AMD-20260805-011617-ff4f |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | AMD-20260805-000621-36e2 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 5, 2026 | freshest | AMD-20260805-000621-36e2 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $518.58 | $430.00 | -17.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 23, 2026 | v0.3.0 | — | — | — | — | — | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.