Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$60.73
6-month call
Bull +7.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$65.10
Great value below
$52.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
+7.2% to $65.10
Predicted High
$65.10
at 6 months
Predicted Low
$60.90
in 2 weeks
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:47 am
Bull
AOS trends higher to
$65.10
(+7.2% from $60.73)
by Feb 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisAOS is a boring compounder trading below composite fair value with no active narrative. Risk-on regime and depressed 6-month returns support a slow drift higher toward the $65-68 zone, but weak sentiment and mixed value signals cap upside. Expect gradual mean reversion rather than a decisive break.
Invalidated ifBreak below $56 on volume or a guide-down at next print would invalidate the drift-higher thesis
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $60.73 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $60.73 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $57.07–$64.39 typical range · internal point $60.90 | — | ±6.0% | 6/10 | Flat drift, no catalyst, risk-on tape supportive |
| What actually happened: closed $61.40 on Aug 17, 2026 = +1.1% vs the call (predicted +0.3%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 0.8 pp · accuracy 10/10 · typical range ±6.0%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $55.43–$66.03 typical range · internal point $61.40 | — | ±8.7% | 6/10 | Slow grind as oversold 6mo return stabilizes |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $62.30 | — | +2.6% | 5/10 | Earnings approach draws modest positioning |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $63.50 | — | +4.6% | 4/10 | Post-print reaction, likely in-line result |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $64.20 | — | +5.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward composite fair value |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $64.80 | — | +6.7% | 3/10 | Year-end rebalancing into laggard quality names |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $65.10 | — | +7.2% | 3/10 | Gradual convergence toward deserved value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $61.29 (+0.9%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $60.73 |
| Composite fair value | $72.26 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $71.81 |
| DCF fair value | $43.43 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $163.97 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $52.00 |
| Value net score | -48 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +52 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 30.7% 3m 30.2% 6m 28.8% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.9% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.45 3m 0.83 5m 0.85 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -17.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | AOS-20260803-171347-1cf1 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AOS-20260803-180347-4fb7 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AOS-20260803-180347-4fb7 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AOS-20260803-180347-4fb7 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-AOS-20260803-180347-4fb7 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | AOS-20260803-171347-1cf1 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | AOS-20260803-171347-1cf1 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bull | $60.73 | $65.10 | +7.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.