Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$163.34
6-month call
Bear -11.2%
Target by Feb 2027
$145.00
Great value below
$135.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-11.2% to $145.00
Predicted High
$164.50
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$145.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-11.2%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 1:15 am
Bear
APH trends lower to
$145.00
(-11.2% from $163.34)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisAPH trades meaningfully above composite fair value with a negative value lens but strong quality; in a mild risk-on tape with no catalyst, momentum keeps it elevated near-term before valuation gravity pulls it toward the mid-140s over 6 months.
Invalidated ifA break above $175 on volume or below $145 would falsify the slow-fade path; a regime flip to risk-off would accelerate the decline.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $163.34 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $163.34 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $147.16–$179.52 typical range · internal point $164.50 | — | ±9.9% | 6/10 | Risk-on tape and momentum carry price sideways-up |
| What actually happened: closed $170.87 on Aug 17, 2026 = +4.6% vs the call (predicted +0.7%) · direction HIT (called flat, was flat) · off by 3.9 pp · accuracy 9/10 · typical range ±9.9%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $139.89–$186.79 typical range · internal point $162.00 | — | ±14.4% | 5/10 | No catalyst; drift as high beta cools |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $158.00 | — | -3.3% | 5/10 | Valuation gravity begins pulling toward fair value |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $154.00 | — | -5.7% | 4/10 | Possible Q3 print tests premium multiple |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $150.00 | — | -8.2% | 4/10 | Year-end de-risking trims extended quality names |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $147.00 | — | -10.0% | 3/10 | January rebalance pressures overvalued winners |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $145.00 | — | -11.2% | 3/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $158.95 (-2.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
EPV de-weighted — growth IS the value proposition for this type of company
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $163.34 |
| Composite fair value | $128.38 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $231.93 |
| DCF fair value | $116.05 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $175.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $135.00 |
| Value net score | -74 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +71 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 44.2% 3m 49.7% 6m 49.9% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 3.1% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.37 3m 1.54 5m 1.63 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 13.4% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260804-005941-b986 |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260804-005941-b986 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260804-005941-b986 |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | ext-APH-20260804-005941-b986 |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 4, 2026 | freshest | APH-20260804-000624-eef0 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
2 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $163.34 | $145.00 | -11.2% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
| Jun 27, 2026 | v0.3.0 | Neutral | $163.72 | $157.55 | -3.8% | Dec 2026 | view |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.