Made on
Sep 18, 2026
Price at call
$312.92
6-month call
Bear -28.1%
Target by Mar 2027
$225.00
Great value below
$210.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-28.1% to $225.00
Predicted High
$298.00
in 2 weeks
Predicted Low
$225.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-28.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Sep 18, 2026 1:28 pm
Bear
APP trends lower to
$225.00
(-28.1% from $312.92)
by Mar 2027.
dip-then-recover
ThesisAPP is a broken high-beta growth story trading at ~2x fair value after a 27% drawdown; momentum is negative and the narrative is cracked, so the path likely continues bleeding lower with brief oversold bounces before value gravity pulls it toward the low-$200s over six months.
Invalidated ifA reclaim of $360 on strong volume or a blowout guide-up would invalidate the bearish drift; conversely, a break below $250 accelerates decay past our targets.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $312.92 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Sep 18, 2026 | — | $312.92 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Oct 2, 2026 | $269.73–$356.11 typical range · internal point $298.00 | — | ±13.8% | 6/10 | Negative sentiment and momentum continue near-term bleed |
| What actually happened: closed $281.31 on Oct 1, 2026 = -10.1% vs the call (predicted -4.8%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 5.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±13.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.2% over the same window — beat it | ||||||
| 1 month | Oct 18, 2026 | $250.33–$375.51 typical range · internal point $285.00 | — | ±20.0% | 6/10 | Risk-off tape pressures high-beta AI adtech names |
| 2 months | Nov 18, 2026 | $270.00 | — | -13.7% | 5/10 | No catalyst; drift toward anchored-PE zone continues |
| 3 months | Dec 18, 2026 | $255.00 | — | -18.5% | 5/10 | Year-end tax-loss selling amplifies the downtrend |
| 4 months | Jan 18, 2027 | $248.00 | — | -20.7% | 4/10 | Oversold bounce near attractive-value threshold |
| 5 months | Feb 18, 2027 | $238.00 | — | -23.9% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls toward signal-adjusted fair value |
| 6 months | Mar 18, 2027 | $225.00 | — | -28.1% | 4/10 | Convergence toward composite fair value continues |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $285.64 (-8.7%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
No weaknesses recorded for this run.All inputs present, no fallbacks used — nothing to flag.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $312.92 |
| Composite fair value | $146.03 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $167.51 |
| DCF fair value | $137.07 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | $254.50 |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $210.00 |
| Value net score | -68 |
| Value confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +83 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 32.9% 3m 69.3% 6m 69.0% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 4.4% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.46 3m 1.92 5m 1.54 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -27.3% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Sep 6, 2026 | 11d behind | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260917-170901-2dd4 |
ext-lens-quality |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260917-170901-2dd4 |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260917-170901-2dd4 |
ext-lens-value |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | ext-APP-20260917-170901-2dd4 |
scenario-valuation |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
valuation-synthesis |
Sep 17, 2026 | freshest | APP-20260806-000518-6225 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
3 frozen snapshots — the record we score once predictions mature.Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.