ASR
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Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste S.A.B. de C.V.
Industrials · Airports & Air Services
Made on
Aug 4, 2026
Price at call
$278.60
6-month call
Neutral -3.1%
Target by Feb 2027
$270.00
Great value below
$220.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-3.1% to $270.00
Predicted High
$288.00
at 2 months
Predicted Low
$270.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-3.1%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 4, 2026 2:49 am
Neutral
ASR trends range-bound to
$270.00
(-3.1% from $278.60)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisASR's monopoly-platform quality and low-beta profile plus a fresh risk-on regime should support a modest bounce from oversold conditions near-term, but the -19.6% trailing drift and value-lens caution below $220 cap upside. Path drifts higher over weeks, then flattens as momentum fades without an earnings catalyst.
Invalidated ifA break below $255 on volume, or risk-off regime flip, invalidates the modest recovery thesis.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $278.60 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 4, 2026 | — | $278.60 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Aug 18, 2026 | $262.38–$294.82 typical range · internal point $282.50 | — | ±5.8% | 6/10 | risk-on regime, low beta, mild mean-reversion bounce |
| What actually happened: closed $263.00 on Aug 17, 2026 = -5.6% vs the call (predicted +1.4%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 7.0 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±5.8%: inside the band · S&P +0.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 4, 2026 | $255.09–$302.11 typical range · internal point $286.00 | — | ±8.4% | 6/10 | momentum narrative and platform-monopoly bid continue |
| 2 months | Oct 4, 2026 | $288.00 | — | +3.4% | 5/10 | drift higher absent catalyst, quality supports |
| 3 months | Nov 4, 2026 | $284.00 | — | +1.9% | 4/10 | no earnings catalyst, momentum begins fading |
| 4 months | Dec 4, 2026 | $279.00 | — | +0.1% | 4/10 | value gravity reasserts as sentiment cools |
| 5 months | Jan 4, 2027 | $274.00 | — | -1.7% | 3/10 | year-end profit-taking, valuation overhang |
| 6 months | Feb 4, 2027 | $270.00 | — | -3.1% | 3/10 | gradual drift toward value-lens attractive zone |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $235.56 (-15.4%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 0 degraded · 2 notes — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: dcf.
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $278.60 |
| Composite fair value | $31.28 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $33.44 |
| DCF fair value | — |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $220.00 |
| Value net score | -58 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +83 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 28.5% 3m 29.2% 6m 32.2% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 1.8% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 0.92 3m 1.10 5m 1.27 |
| Trailing 6-month return | -19.6% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | Array |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | Array |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ASR-20260803-124608-c2a5 |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASR-20260803-131414-475e |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASR-20260803-131414-475e |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASR-20260803-131414-475e |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ext-ASR-20260803-131414-475e |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ASR-20260803-124608-c2a5 |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 3, 2026 | freshest | ASR-20260803-124608-c2a5 |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Neutral | $278.60 | $270.00 | -3.1% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.