Made on
Aug 28, 2026
Price at call
$212.28
6-month call
Bear -9.6%
Target by Feb 2027
$192.00
Great value below
$110.00
Model
v0.6.0
Projection vs Actual (6M history + forecast)
Forecast Change
-9.6% to $192.00
Predicted High
$220.00
at 1 month
Predicted Low
$192.00
at 6 months
Max Drawdown (predicted)
-9.6%
Forecast
The masterbrain trajectory — 7 dated checkpoints. Short rungs (2w, 1m) show the typical range as the primary claim; point calls run from 2 months out. Every claim still gets graded. Predicted Aug 28, 2026 1:03 pm
Bear
ATI trends lower to
$192.00
(-9.6% from $212.28)
by Feb 2027.
ride-then-fade
ThesisMomentum and risk-on tape keep ATI bid near-term with a strong earnings streak and no imminent catalyst to break the trend, but extreme premium to fair value creates gravity that slowly compresses the multiple over the back half of the window.
Invalidated ifBreak below $185 on rising volume or a regime flip to risk-off would invalidate the near-term ride; sustained close above $235 would invalidate the fade.
| Checkpointtime after the call | Datewhen it gets graded | Predictedthe claim: closing price | Current priceactual close — fills in over time | Predicted returnpredicted vs $212.28 at call | Conv.brain's confidence, 1–10 | Driverwhy the brain put the point here |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prediction made | Aug 28, 2026 | — | $212.28 at call | — | — | The anchor — every point below is measured from this price and date. |
| 2 weeks | Sep 11, 2026 | $194.39–$230.17 typical range · internal point $216.50 | — | ±8.4% | 7/10 | Momentum and risk-on flows extend recent uptrend |
| What actually happened: closed $199.00 on Sep 10, 2026 = -6.3% vs the call (predicted +2.0%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 8.2 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±8.4%: inside the band · S&P -1.6% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 1 month | Sep 28, 2026 | $186.35–$238.21 typical range · internal point $220.00 | — | ±12.2% | 6/10 | Narrative-driven bid persists absent catalyst |
| What actually happened: closed $185.48 on Sep 25, 2026 = -12.6% vs the call (predicted +3.6%) · direction MISS (called flat, was down) · off by 16.3 pp · accuracy 4/10 · typical range ±12.2%: OUTSIDE the band · S&P +0.4% over the same window — lagged it | ||||||
| 2 months | Oct 28, 2026 | $218.00 | — | +2.7% | 5/10 | Momentum plateaus as valuation stretch noted |
| 3 months | Nov 28, 2026 | $210.00 | — | -1.1% | 4/10 | Q3 print digestion; profit-taking begins |
| 4 months | Dec 28, 2026 | $205.00 | — | -3.4% | 4/10 | Year-end rebalancing trims extended winners |
| 5 months | Jan 28, 2027 | $198.00 | — | -6.7% | 4/10 | Value gravity pulls multiple lower |
| 6 months | Feb 28, 2027 | $192.00 | — | -9.6% | 3/10 | Fair-value compression continues into spring |
Why ranges on the short rungs?
A 102-prediction trial (2026-07-21) showed 2-week point calls carry no information here —
three prompt formulations all lost to simply predicting zero — while the stock's own
volatility scale (σ×√t) described those windows well. So the short rungs claim what's
actually knowable: the typical travel, with earnings timing flagged where the variance
will come from. The internal point calls keep being generated and graded to map where
real skill begins. Full evidence: stocks/predictions/V0.5-DESIGN.md §8.
Deterministic control (v0.3 value line) targets $177.69 (-16.3%) — both lines get graded at every checkpoint, so the brain has to beat the formula, not just replace it. Brain: claude-opus-4-7.
Weaknesses
0 blocking · 1 degraded · 1 note — follow the chain top-down (cause → effect).-
Degraded
[critical] Cash flow quality is poor — reported earnings may not reflect reality
-
Note
Valuation anchor absent: anchored_pe.
Equation Inputs
Everything feeding the v0.6.0 model — value anchors, the stock's own price behaviour, and the tunable knobs.Value anchors (from deep analysis)
| Price at call | $212.28 |
| Composite fair value | $18.30 |
| Signal-adjusted fair value | $16.63 |
| DCF fair value | $14.82 |
| Anchored-PE fair value | — |
| Buy-below (value lens) | $110.00 |
| Value net score | -66 |
| Value confidence | 6 / 10 |
| Quality net score | +35 |
| Memo confidence | 7 / 10 |
| Deserved value (base) | — |
| Quality tilt | — |
| Deserved value (used) | — |
| Coherence (value × quality) | — |
Price behaviour (trailing — shapes the realism line)
| Realized volatility (annualized) | 1m 43.3% 3m 42.3% 6m 46.3% |
| Daily σ (realism noise) | 2.7% |
| Beta vs S&P 500 | 1m 1.21 3m 1.39 5m 1.71 |
| Trailing 6-month return | 31.2% |
Knobs (equation params)
| ladder | ["w2","m1","m2","m3","m4","m5","m6"] |
| llm_model | claude-opus-4-7 |
| max_tokens | 3000 |
| control_knobs | {"w_dcf":0.5,"k_qual":0.200000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"reach_6m":0.450000000000000011102230246251565404236316680908203125,"coh_floor":0.5,"conf_gain":0.059999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"noise_phi":0.84999999999999997779553950749686919152736663818359375,"conf_floor":0.40000000000000002220446049250313080847263336181640625,"w_composite":0.5,"noise_window":"3m","flat_band_pct":5,"horizon_months":6,"noise_sigma_fallback":0.01499999999999999944488848768742172978818416595458984375} |
| Neutral band (%) | 5 |
| earnings_brief | v1 |
| prompt_version | p1 |
| control_version | v0.3.0 |
Version & Tech Chain
What produced this prediction — stamped on the record so versions can be compared by success rate later.
Model
v0.6.0
#271041f8fcd5 Tech composition (what this version is built from)
| # | Process | Kind | Group |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Synthesis valuation-synthesis |
deterministic | final |
| 2 | Scenario Analysis scenario-valuation |
deterministic | valuation |
| 3 | Valuation / Mispricing ext-lens-value |
llm | extended |
| 4 | Company Quality ext-lens-quality |
llm | extended |
| 5 | Forensic Memo (combiner) ext-forensic-memo |
llm | extended |
| 6 | Classification company-classification |
llm | foundation |
| 7 | Live Quote fmp-quote |
data | market-data |
Inputs used (the runs that fed this prediction)
| Upstream process | Ran | Lag | Run id |
|---|---|---|---|
company-classification |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ATI-20260828-003002-779d |
ext-forensic-memo |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-ATI-20260828-005049-d8ed |
ext-lens-quality |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-ATI-20260828-005049-d8ed |
ext-lens-sentiment |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-ATI-20260828-005049-d8ed |
ext-lens-value |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ext-ATI-20260828-005049-d8ed |
scenario-valuation |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ATI-20260828-003002-779d |
valuation-synthesis |
Aug 28, 2026 | freshest | ATI-20260828-003002-779d |
Inputs flagged 7d+ behind the freshest one may be stale relative to the rest of the analysis.
Saved History
1 frozen snapshot — the record we score once predictions mature.| Made | Model | Call | At call | Target | Exp. | Eval due | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | v0.6.0 | Bear | $212.28 | $192.00 | -9.6% | Feb 2027 | viewing |
Not Yet Modeled
What this v0.6.0 forecast deliberately ignores — the work ahead, in plain sight.- Scenario probabilities — one path, no bull/bear split (base_prob = 1.0).
- Intraday / sub-2-week behaviour — the first claim is at 14 days by design (EOD product).
- Position sizing / portfolio context — the path is a price claim only.